Tensions are brewing among Labour MPs ahead of Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement, with some warning further cuts will spell electoral ruin as voters complain on the doorstep – but others accusing colleagues of being naive about the choices facing the party.
While the government is keen to stress it won’t be a mini-Budget, Reeves is expected to announce further cuts because high borrowing costs and low economic growth are thought to have wiped out the £9.9 billion fiscal headroom previously forecast at the Autumn Budget.
The Chancellor’s only other option, if she is to stay within her own fiscal rules, would be to raise taxes. However, she ruled that out in an interview with The Sun on Sunday.
Welfare reforms already coming up on the doorstep
Speaking to LabourList, one Labour MP said they were working with campaigners to put pressure on colleagues to speak out against the cuts.
“I will not be voting to make poor people in my constituency poorer. That was not what I signed up for as a Labour MP. I’m in discussions with lots of organisations representing disabled people to see how they can put more pressure on Labour MPs to speak out. The Spring Statement needs to soothe the nation – not kick it in the teeth.”
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They said the recent welfare reforms keep coming up on the doorstep, with “most people saying they could not believe that a Labour government would be doing this”.
The MP added that Labour was going to struggle in the upcoming local and mayoral elections, “if the polls are to be believed”.
“What’s really regrettable is that the Government has put forward so many good pieces of legislation that are popular with the public – yet every so often we go and shoot ourselves in the foot.
“I’m not sure who is making these calls – but they’re damaging the party’s reputation.”
‘An assault on the beating heart of the Labour movement’
One potential reform that has been floated is an end to free school meals for infants. However, Reeves was quick to shut reports down, saying she “didn’t recognise” them.
Another MP told LabourList they’d be “mortified” if the meals were cut, adding that cuts to education in general would be “an assault on the beating heart of a Labour movement”.
“If we begin to cut education, which the rumours are that it is going to be quite savagely attacked, that I think goes right to the heart of what Labour is.”
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Kim Johnson, the left-wing MP for Liverpool Riverside , said there was a “growing sense of unease” ahead of the Spring Statement, as “fears mount over potential cuts that could deepen poverty and devastate communities already struggling to get by”.
“Slashing public spending would only push our most vulnerable further into hardship, stripping away essential services and widening inequality across the country.
“The UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights has already condemned previous Tory welfare cuts for causing “severe economic hardship, increased reliance on food banks, homelessness, negative impacts on mental health, and stigmatisation of benefits claimants.”
“Is this the legacy our government is willing to embrace?”
‘There’s a little bit of naivety among some MPs’
However, other MPs have backed the government, with one who spoke to LabourList accusing colleagues of being naive.
“I understand some of the concerns that colleagues have, and obviously I’ve had a lot of correspondence on various things since we’ve been in government – with welfare and everything.
“There’s a little bit of naivety among some. We were told before and not long after the election that we’ll have to make difficult choices, and I’m just not sure some of them really understood what that meant.”
“There was an element of people thinking: we’ll come in, we’ll sprinkle some star dust, and then it will be fixed.”
The same MP admitted that they’d be “lying” if they said the mood was “triumphant” among the PLP.
“I think there’s a feeling that people would have liked to see a government of largesse, turning the taps on, money for this, money for that. People would definitely prefer that; there is an element of ‘not again’ a little bit.”
‘Overwhelming majority of MPs support Reeves’
Discontent among members with the Chancellor’s belt-tightening likely explains Reeves’ position at the bottom of our recent league table of favourabiliy ratings for the cabinet among 2,000 of our readers, based on Survation polling.
But Joani Reid, the MP for East Kilbride and Strathaven said that while the last nine months have been tough, Reeves nonetheless still has the support of most Labour MPs.
“We were elected to do a job over five years and we knew it would not be easy given the inheritance and the last nine months have been very tough.
“But having a Labour government makes a positive difference right across the country and the Chancellor should know she has the support of the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs.”
The row comes after the government announced reforms to the welfare system last week – aiming to save £5 billion by the end of 2030.
The reforms were controversial, with MPs warning the rhetoric had “turned people’s stomachs” and forcing a partial retreat on personal independence payment reform. Some have said they will rebel if it comes to a vote, including Nadia Whitome on Monday.
In the meantime, the expected publication of an impact assessment on the welfare changes this week risks heaping further pressure on Labour MPs to speak out.
Ahead of that assessment, in a move that has been framed as “sweetening the pill” of the cuts, the Chancellor made a surprise announcement this morning of £2 billion investment in affordable and social housing. The money will fund 18,000 affordable and social care homes as part of the government’s target to build 1.5 million homes over the course of this parliament.
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