Reform UK just two points behind Tories in new poll…
“Reform UK is polling just two points behind the Tories in the wake of Nigel Farage’s announcement that he will stand as an MP. A YouGov survey found that Mr Farage’s party is at 17 per cent, with the Conservatives at 19 per cent. The polling company has changed its methodology this week and, under its old system, the Tories and Reform would have been neck and neck on 18 per cent. The survey of around 2,000 people will cause alarm in Conservative headquarters, as it points towards a Tory wipeout on July 4. With Labour on 40 per cent, it gives Sir Keir Starmer a 21-point lead over the Tories – enough for a huge majority in the Commons. The poll, carried out on Monday and Tuesday, is the first to take into account the effect of Mr Farage’s announcement that he would be standing as a candidate in Clacton, Essex.” – Daily Telegraph
- Party hopes ‘Farage factor’ will bring millions in donations – The Times
Analysis:
- ‘Send me to Westminster. I’ll be a bloody nuisance’ – Quentin Letts, Daily Mail
- The truth about Nigel Farage’s coup – Andrew Pierce, Daily Mail
More:
- Experts divide Britain’s electorate into six groups – Daily Mail
>Today: Patrick English’s column: Amid the gloomy polls, is there any hope for Sunak?
>Yesterday: Daniel Hannan’s column: Farage is a peddler of fantasy politics – and well-adapted to our TikTok age
…and right-wing Tories put on ‘defection watch’
“Right-wing Tories are on ‘defection watch’ following Nigel Farage’s dramatic return to the political frontline as leader of Reform UK. Several Conservatives are said to be considering whether to switch to Mr Farage’s party amid fears of a Tory wipeout at the polls. But Conservative candidate Tom Hunt – who was MP for Ipswich until Parliament was dissolved for the general election – today denied reports he is among those who could defect. Mr Hunt was said to be disappointed with Rishi Sunak’s failure to get migrant deportation flights to Rwanda off the ground before the election was called. He was also said to have been pushing the Prime Minister for a tougher line on immigration for months, and described as ‘bruised’ by a party selection row.” – Daily Mail
- Anderson jokes ‘my phone is on fire’ as Tories beg him to make major election move – Daily Express
- Hunt warns against Tory lurch to right: ‘Elections are won from the centre ground’ – The Guardian
- It was a mistake for Sunak to call an early election, says Curtice – Daily Telegraph
- Tory ‘civil war’ erupts as party members slam Sunak for ‘stabbing Boris in the back’ – Daily Express
Comment:
- Farage has driven the Conservatives to a state of near-total psychological collapse – Allister Heath, Daily Telegraph
- If he is elected, Tory mayhem will follow – Iain Martin, The Times
>Yesterday: Christopher Howarth in Comment: Before we can return to office, Conservatives must be honest about how we’ve failed
Policy 1) Killers ‘to get tougher sentences’ as Conservatives promise overhaul of law
“The Conservative Party manifesto will promise to increase from 15 to 25 years the minimum sentence for murders that take place in the home, The Times has been told. It will also commit itself to a wider review to ensure tougher sentences are given to killers such as Valdo Calocane, who fatally stabbed three people in Nottingham last year. He was charged with murder but allowed to plead guilty to manslaughter on the basis of diminished responsibility. Two of the families of Calocane’s victims said the proposals for US-style murder classifications would be a “seismic, important change”. The prime minister is understood to have taken a personal interest in the need for changing the law after meeting the victims’ families.” – The Times
- Manifesto will promise the biggest overhaul of homicide law in nearly 70 years – Daily Telegraph
Policy 2) Tories pledge extra help to secure good jobs for veterans when they return to civilian life
“A new veterans bill will enshrine new rights in law to protect military heroes when they leave service under plans announced by Rishi Sunak. The Prime Minister promised to give military qualifications an equal standing with civilians exams to give ex-forces personnel the strongest chance of securing good jobs. Tax breaks for employers who recruit veterans will also be extended after the national insurance holiday introduced by the government led to a 9% increase in the employment rate. The price of a veterans railcard will be cut by almost a third from £30 per year to £21, bringing it in line with the price serving personnel pay for the HM Forces Railcard.” – Daily Express
Policy 3) Sunak demands Labour matches his fresh election pledge on council tax and stamp duty
“Rishi Sunak opened up a new front in the tax war tonight – demanding Labour match a fresh election pledge to stop family homes being targeted. The PM upped the pressure with a promise to protect 26million properties from any extra bill rises if he wins next month’s election. His Family Homes Guarantee rules out the prospect of a costly council tax shake-up and includes a commitment not to raise the rate or level of stamp duty. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt threw down the gauntlet to shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves to mirror the pledge. In the past, she has suggested a council tax overhaul which could drive up bills. It came after Sir Keir Starmer struggled to shut down claims of a £2,000 tax whack on families.” – The Sun
- Tories warn Labour planning stealth tax raid as they pledge ‘family home tax guarantee’ – Daily Express
- Reeves has ‘no plans’ to revisit UK pension tax, but won’t rule it out – FT
More:
- Green Tories warn Prime Minister not to junk Net Zero targets – Daily Mail
- Boost for Sunak as economic forecasts are upgraded – Daily Express
- Housebuilders call for new limits on local politicians blocking developments – FT
>Yesterday: Sam Hall in Comment: At this election, Conservatives should not cede trust on tackling environmental threats
Jeremy Hunt: Starmer is playing the public for fools
“Labour will raise your taxes. It’s who they are, it’s in their DNA. The Conservatives are the party of free enterprise and entrepreneurialism. Labour are the party of an ever-increasing state. Our philosophy is founded on clear principles that people and businesses should keep more of their money to spend and reinvest, thereby creating economic growth. Labour’s philosophy depends on grabbing ever more of that money to feed an expanding public sector. At this election, Sir Keir Starmer is telling you otherwise. He is trying to claim that Labour have changed. They haven’t. Shortly before the general election was announced, I set my officials in the Treasury the task of analysing the cost of the proposals that Labour had put forward to date.” – Daily Telegraph
- Only radical reform can prevent rising taxes – Juliet Samuel, The Times
- Why British trade policy needs to stand still – Alan Beattie, FT
Editorial:
- It is legitimate to question how the opposition will meet its promises – The Times
>Today: ToryDiary: Conservatives cannot just trot out ‘Labour’s Tax Bombshell’ irrespective of their own tax-hiking record
‘Tory grassroots fury’ as party chairman parachuted into safe seat
“The Conservative Party chairman is facing a backlash from grassroots activists after a last-minute move to impose him as the candidate for a safe seat in Essex. Richard Holden is set to contest Basildon & Billericay after his former constituency, North West Durham, was abolished in the election boundary changes. He has made several attempts to find a safe seat. The move prompted outrage from his soon-to-be local Tory association and claims of “absolutely shameful” behaviour. Sources said that the Conservative Party’s head of candidates informed the association officers on Wednesday there would be no shortlist for them to choose from.” – The Times
- Man jailed after sending threatening emails to Nokes – The Guardian
Starmer says Sunak broke ministerial code with £2,000 Labour tax claim…
“Rishi Sunak lied to the country and broke the ministerial code when he claimed Labour’s spending plans would increase taxes by £2,000, Keir Starmer has said, as his party attempts to regain control of the election narrative. Both Starmer and the shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, rounded on Sunak in an increasingly bitter and personal war of words, saying the prime minister’s tactics during Tuesday night’s TV debate showed he was dishonest under pressure. The Conservatives were jubilant at how the figure had landed on Tuesday night, and some Labour insiders were privately horrified at how slow Starmer had been to challenge the tax claims during the debate.” – The Guardian
- Rattled Labour mounts frantic attempt to rebut Sunak’s tax-rise claim – The Guardian
- Prime Minister at odds with top Treasury official – FT
- How do Sunak’s claims of a Labour £2,000 tax rise stack up? – The Times
- The five things Starmer must fix in time for the next TV debate – Daily Telegraph
Sketch:
- Sunak’s protégé plays fast and loose in the big game of Liar Liar – Tom Peck, The Times
>Yesterday: ToryDiary: Leaders Debate sketch: This TV show was so dull it should never be repeated
…as new poll finds majority of public oppose lowering the voting age to 16…
“Labour’s plan to lower the voting age to 16 is opposed by more than half of voters, according to new polling by Lord Ashcroft. Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to grant 16 and 17-year-olds the vote, saying people old enough to work and pay tax should be allowed to ‘have a say’. But the policy is ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ opposed by 52 per cent of voters with just 38 per cent supporting it, according to the research shared exclusively with the Mail. More than half (57 per cent) of 18 to 24-year-olds back the proposal to lower the voting age, compared to only one in five over-65s. While the polling is damning on one of Labour’s flagship policies, overall it gives Sir Keir a comfortable 24-point lead – up one on last week.” – Daily Mail
- Fact check: Did Starmer really help extremists? And does it matter? – The Times
- GB Energy: can Labour’s plan to become a ‘superpower’ pay off? – FT
More:
- The undecided millions who hold the key to this undecided election are revealed in new poll – Lord Ashcroft, Daily Mail
>Today: Lord Ashcroft in Comment: My election survey finds 2019 Conservative voters back national service and the ‘quadruple lock’
>Yesterday: George Barnes in Comment: Labour’s proposal to lower the voting age to 16 is both misplaced and cynical
…and Gething loses no-confidence vote
“Vaughan Gething, first minister of Wales, has lost a vote of no confidence just 77 days after taking office, in a move that throws the Welsh Labour party into chaos in the middle of a UK general election campaign. The motion of no confidence against Gething was approved by 29 votes to 27 on Wednesday afternoon after two of his Labour colleagues in the Welsh Senedd called in sick. While the ballot is not binding, the defeat is a significant blow to Gething’s authority. He insisted he would continue as first minister despite losing the vote, saying he was “proud” to hold the role… The no-confidence vote in Gething was called by the opposition Conservative party in the Senedd after a dispute over donations received by Gething when he was running for the Welsh Labour leadership last year.” – FT
- Starmer stood by embattled First Minister only last week – The Sun
- Gething under pressure to resign after series of scandals – Daily Telegraph
- He loses confidence vote by 29 to 27 after two of his Labour assembly members ‘were off sick’ – Daily Mail
Liberal Democrats opposed to Labour’s private school VAT hike ‘as a point of principle’
“The leader of the Liberal Democrats has declared he opposes Labour’s planned VAT raid on private schools as a point of “principle”. Sir Ed Davey said the independent education sector had “an absolute right to exist” in remarks distancing himself from Sir Keir Starmer’s stance. Labour has said its plan to introduce a 20 per cent levy on private education will raise up to £1.6 billion a year for the Exchequer to invest in the state sector. But this figure has been strongly disputed amid fears the policy could actually end up costing taxpayers more money than it raises, while there are also fears of an exodus of pupils from private schools as families struggle to afford fees.” – Daily Telegraph
>Today: ToryDiary: Vox pub: The Liberal Democrats take the lead in Berkhamsted
Britain isn’t ready for Third World War, says outgoing army chief
“Britain should be better prepared for a war so large that it could kill tens of millions of people, the outgoing head of the army has said. General Sir Patrick Sanders, who will step down in the coming days after two years in post, said the Second World War felt like “ancient history” to young people, yet conflict on that scale could “happen again”. Speaking in Portsmouth at an event to commemorate the D-Day operation of June 6, 1944, he said the only way to prevent a repeat of the past was to have a “credible, strong armed forces”… His comments are likely to infuriate Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the head of the armed forces, who has tried to play down the threat facing Britain by saying Russia is not seeking a direct war with Nato.” – The Times
- D-Day veterans are the very best of Britain – Grant Shapps MP, Daily Mail
Trump’s election interference case in Georgia paused indefinitely
“A court in Georgia has paused the election interference case against Donald Trump as it considers his claim the prosector bringing the charges has been compromised. It means that other than the conviction last week in New York, where Mr Trump was found guilty of covering up hush money payments to an adult actress with whom he allegedly had a sexual encounter in 2006, no other cases will be heard before the November election. On Wednesday, an appeals court put a sprawling election interference case against the 77-year-old former president and 14 other defendants on hold until it determined whether prosecutor Fani Willis, should be prevented from leading the prosecution.” – Daily Telegraph
- He leads Biden by five points in first major poll taken after the hush money verdict – Daily Mail
>Today: Garvan Walshe’s column: Behind Mexico’s first female president lurks a familiar left-wing power grab
>Yesterday:
