Reform 1) Sunak’s ‘darkest hour’ as Farage enters election race
“Rishi Sunak suffered the darkest hour of his election campaign yesterday afternoon. During a dramatic 60 minutes, the Prime Minister suffered a double blow as Nigel Farage entered the fray and a new poll predicted a Tory wipeout. At 4pm, Mr Farage stunned Westminster by announcing he would return as leader of the Reform Party and stand for Parliament in the Essex seaside town of Clacton. The veteran Brexiteer declared he would lead a ‘political revolt’ – and predicted his party could overtake the Tories… Farage’s decision to fully commit to the election campaign dismayed many Tory candidates. One described it as ‘a disaster’… Another former Cabinet minister paraphrased Churchill’s comments after losing the post-war election in 1945: ‘If this is a blessing, it is very heavily disguised.’” – Daily Mail
- Reform UK leader ‘plots revolt’ with return to frontline politics – The Times
- He ‘he aims to position his party as real opposition to Labour’ – Daily Telegraph
- Farage ‘outlines exactly how long it will take Reform UK to beat Tories in the polls’ – Daily Express
- Brexit campaigner returns as party leader in eighth attempt to become MP – FT
>Today: ToryDiary: Will the Tories come third?
Reform 2) Prime Minister warns voters backing them will hand Labour victory at election
“Rishi Sunak warned voters considering giving Nigel Farage their backing at the election they will put everything they value at risk. After the ex-Ukip leader made a dramatic late entry into the contest by taking over Reform and announcing he will stand in Clacton, the Prime Minister laid out the stark reality of backing the insurgent party. He told the Daily Express progress on tackling the small boats crisis will be lost, punishing green penalties will hit hard-pressed families and taxes will rise because a vote for anyone other than the Conservatives makes a Labour victory more likely… Sunak vowed to come out swinging with a bold plan against a silent Labour party that is hoping to sneak into No 10.” – Daily Express
- Sunak’s comeback plan just got a whole lot harder – The Times
- Reality check: how do Farage’s claims on immigration, economy and crime hold up? – The Guardian
>Today: Charlotte Salomon in Comment: It’s time for our Party to stop looking to the past for answers – and embrace Millennial leadership
Reform 3) A pint at the pub, then he blindsided his party leader and the local candidate
““I took the day off yesterday,” he told journalists… “Had a normal day. Walked the dogs. Did a bit of fishing. Popped into the pub, you know – a normal sort of day. It gave me time to think and reflect, and I began to feel a terrible sense of guilt.” The guilt, he said, was about the people he had spoken to on the campaign trail who could not understand why he had decided two weeks earlier not to stand. It may also have come from the fact that many Reform UK candidates had only agreed to put everything aside to stand because they assumed they would be running under his banner. But could it also have been for the leader he was about to oust – Richard Tice? The Telegraph understands he waited until the next morning before even informing Mr Tice that he was taking his job.” – Daily Telegraph
- Like him or loathe him, you can’t ignore Nigel – The Sun
Sketch:
- Dullest election outside North Korea needed some Reform – Tim Stanley, Daily Telegraph
- Sunak’s worst nightmare – Tom Peck, The Times
- It was another moribund election day, then… wham! – Quentin Letts, Daily Mail
- Lights, cameras, Farage – John Crace, The Guardian
Reform 4) Nigel Farage: Patriotic British voters now have a real alternative to this failed elite
“Campaigning this weekend, I was reminded of my responsibility to the millions of decent, patriotic Brits who are sick to the back teeth with our political establishment for its policy of betrayal. The people that I meet are furious at, first Labour, and now the Tories’ open-door approach to mass immigration, with some 2.5 million migrants entering the UK in the past two years alone. That’s why this really is the Immigration Election. There is also deep anger that public services, from healthcare to housing, are disintegrating even as record peacetime taxes are levied on pitifully stagnant wages. And there is utter despondency among the electorate that neither Labour nor the Tories can put forward a plan – let alone a leader – that offers just a shred of hope that things might improve.” – Daily Telegraph
- A disaster for the Conservatives – Sir John Curtice, Daily Telegraph
- Tories must now be worried just how many seats they might end up with – James Johnson, The Sun
- Farage is not just offering entertainment value to the otherwise dull elections – Patrick O’Flynn, Daily Express
- Farage knew this is his last chance – Henry Hill, Daily Telegraph
- If euro-zealots stopped shrieking about ‘fascism’, they’d notice Europe swinging further Right than ever – Daniel Hannan, Daily Mail
Editorial:
- The electoral stakes have suddenly risen – Daily Telegraph
- Farage detonated a bomb under the two main parties and their pledges – The Sun
- How Farage could be helping to kill Brexit – Daily Mail
- A serial loser looks to win big in British politics – The Guardian
- I’m a Celebrity – The Times
Labour on track for its biggest election victory in history, MRP poll says
“Labour is on track for its biggest election victory in history, surpassing the number of seats won by Tony Blair in 1997, a poll of more than 50,000 people suggests. The YouGov survey predicts that Sir Keir Starmer is on track to enter Downing Street with 422 MPs, with the Conservatives reduced to only 140 seats, compared with the 365 seats they won five years ago. The seat-by-seat analysis also shows the Conservatives’ electoral fortunes have actually declined since March despite a policy blitz designed to close the gap with Labour. Twelve cabinet ministers are forecast to lose their seats, including Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, and Grant Shapps, the defence secretary. Also facing defeat are Alex Chalk… and Gillian Keegan.” – The Times
- Starmer’s party predicted to secure a 194-seat majority – Daily Telegraph
- Twelve Tory ministers set to lose seats – The Times
- Shapps told live on TV he is going to lose his seat – Daily Telegraph
More:
- Stewart: ‘I don’t get Rishi Sunak’s early election’ – The Times
- Political candidates seek counselling for abuse during campaigning – Daily Telegraph
>Today: Angus Parsad-Wyatt’s Campaign Notebook: Week two. Shapps rallies the troops in Welwyn Hatfield.
>Yesterday:
Sunak pledges to cap work and family visas
“Rishi Sunak has pledged to introduce an annual cap on the number of work and family visas issued by the UK each year as he attempts to open up a clear divide with Sir Keir Starmer on immigration. The exact number of visas granted each year would be determined by an annual vote in parliament. The prime minister is expected to call it an “immigration lock” that will ensure net migration levels are brought back to a sustainable rate that the government and MPs have more control over. Net migration has reached record levels in recent years despite the Conservative Party pledging to reduce it at the last election in 2019, when it was about a quarter of a million. It soared to an all-time high of 764,000 in 2022 but fell by 10 per cent last year to 685,000, although that was still more than triple the level at the last general election.” – The Times
- Ministers would commission the Government’s migration advisers to set limit – Daily Telegraph
- In the face of devastating polls, Sunak steers Conservatives towards radical policies – FT
- Small boat problem: Lib Dems photobomb Prime Minister on the River Thames – Daily Mail
Comment:
- It’s a clear choice: the Conservatives, or open borders under Labour – James Cleverly, Daily Mail
- Labour’s pledge to cut immigration tightens party’s fiscal straitjacket – Stephen Bush, FT
- This is why immigration is likely to go up under Labour – Jonathan Saxty, Daily Express
>Yesterday: ToryDiary: Cleverly and Jenrick take the fight to Labour on immigration – but will the public listen?
Make axing inheritance tax a manifesto pledge, say senior Tories
“Rishi Sunak should make a manifesto pledge to abolish inheritance tax, senior Conservative MPs have said. The Prime Minister is being urged to make the election commitment to put more “clear blue water” between him and Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader. Cutting inheritance tax was considered ahead of last year’s Autumn Statement, but Mr Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, instead opted for tax cuts more directly focused on boosting economic growth. Inheritance tax thresholds have been frozen since 2010 and the levy is regarded by many as deeply unfair, because it penalises people who have saved money throughout their lives after paying tax on their income. Nadhim Zahawi… said inheritance tax had “catastrophic results” for families as well as the wider economy.” – Daily Telegraph
- ‘Local’ MPs can’t give leadership we need – William Hague, The Times
Editorial:
- Britain’s muddle-along economic model – FT
>Today:
>Yesterday: James Lawson in Comment: To earn our vote, Sunak must embrace meaningful reform on tax, childcare, and nuclear energy
Wallace says Starmer is trying to rewrite history with Trident…
“Former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace launched an astonishing attack on Labour today – calling their triple lock pledge for nuclear weapons “triple c**k” and blasting them for “trying to rewrite history”. The ex-Tory minister told The Sun’s Never Mind The Ballots that Sir Keir Starmer is being “fundamentally dishonest” in their promises on national security. The Labour leader vowed to keep the Trident nuclear deterrent and build four new submarines, maintain a continuous at-sea patrol and deliver all future upgrades needed… Wallace, who is not standing for re-election in the General Election, said Labour were offering a “magic wand” for defence issues but lacked the credibility to back it up.” – The Sun
More:
- Britain’s top military units failed to reach recruitment targets under Tories, stats show – The Sun
- War veteran, 99, demands political parties end ‘Frozen pensions’ scandal – Daily Express
…as Rayner insists she haven’t changed my mind on nuclear weapons
“Angela Rayner has said that she still wants to scrap nuclear weapons “in combination with other countries”, hours after Sir Keir Starmer insisted that the whole shadow cabinet was behind his position on nuclear deterrence. On Monday Starmer said that he would be prepared to deploy the weapons to protect Britain as he committed to maintaining the Trident nuclear deterrent. Rayner, the deputy Labour leader, and David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, were among the 47 Labour MPs who voted against renewing Trident in 2016. Asked about the 12 present Labour frontbenchers who opposed its renewal, Starmer said that he had his “whole shadow cabinet” behind him…” – The Times
- Comments on multilateral disarmament come hours after Starmer says he is willing to use the deterrent – Daily Telegraph
- Labour defence policy mired in confusion – Daily Mail
- Reality check: is Starmer’s triple lock on nuclear weapons anything new? – The Guardian
More:
- Starmer vows to keep dedicated Veterans Minister in Cabinet if Labour wins election – The Sun
Comment:
- Labour’s bold military promises amid global turmoil – Lt Col Stuart Crawford, Daily Express
- Come on Starmer, what’s your actual plan? – Hugo Rifkind, The Times
Labour NEC to confirm Abbott reselection
“Diane Abbott will be reselected to fight her seat at a meeting of the Labour party’s executive on Tuesday despite having suggested on social media that Keir Starmer was a liar, the Guardian understands. Abbott will be on the list of candidates picked to fight the general election that is rubber-stamped by the national executive committee (NEC), sources said. Starmer said last week that Abbott was “free to stand” as a Labour candidate, after days of speculation that she could be blocked. Abbott said on Sunday that she intended to “run and win” for Labour in Hackney North and Stoke Newington, and denied a report that she had been offered a seat in the House of Lords if she agreed to stand aside in the constituency she has represented for 37 years.” – The Guardian
- She deletes tweet accusing Starmer of telling ‘more lies’ – Daily Mail
British businesses warn Starmer against plan to increase windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas firms
“The Confederation of British Industry has warned against Labour’s plan to increase the windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas firms. The interest group, which represents 190,000 businesses, claims such a move could hurt investor confidence in Britain. It said in a ‘business manifesto’ that the next government must commit in its first post-election Budget to ‘no further sector-specific taxes – windfall or otherwise’… The government imposed a 35 per cent levy on UK oil and gas producer profits in 2022 after a jump in energy prices, which means they face an overall tax bill of 75 per cent – a policy that the industry is already killing off investment and jobs. Labour wants to increase that to 78 per cent.” – Daily Mail
- Labour seeks to win over disaffected voters in Glasgow’s wealthy suburbs – FT
More:
- Starmer says private school closures has ‘nothing to do with’ Labour’s VAT policy – Daily Mail
- Labour pledges to ban foie gras imports – The Times
Comment:
- Labour’s lack of boldness could come back to haunt it – Martin Sandbu, FT
>Yesterday: Lorraine Platt in Comment: Manifestos matter – and are crucial for advancing animal welfare
Swinney ‘rails against’ Tory plans to ‘make gender biological’
“A Tory election pledge that would stop the SNP trying again to relax gender recognition laws in Scotland is part of a “deliberate strategy” to undermine Holyrood’s powers, John Swinney has said. The First Minister attacked Conservative proposals to rewrite equality laws to define sex as biological, thereby preventing trans women from accessing women’s spaces such as toilets and changing rooms. This would involve transferring responsibility for creating new gender recognition laws from Holyrood to Westminster, preventing the SNP from trying again to pass Nicola Sturgeon’s controversial self-ID rules. Tory insiders argued this “re-reserving” of gender laws would be necessary so that the SNP could not introduce laws that would mean someone would be legally a woman in Scotland and a man in England.” – Daily Telegraph
- Rowling attacks Labour’s ‘indifference to women’ in trans row – The Times
More Scotland:
- Sarwar accuses SNP Government of being ‘mired in sleaze and scandal’ – Daily Telegraph
- Nationalists say Scottish Labour is rewriting party’s spending plans in TV debate – The Guardian
News in Brief:
- The grey vote will not save the Tories – Sam Bidwell, The Critic
- Farage and the futility of British values – Terry Eagleton, UnHerd
- Labour must beware the lure of progressivism – Jonathan Rutherford, New Statesman
- Are voters ready to trust Starmer on defence? – Evie Aspinall, CapX
- Galloway: Labour is the ‘number one enemy’ – Isabel Hardman, The Spectator
