Piers McKenzie Baker is a Conservative Party activist and stood in the 2023 local elections in Kent. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.
Before last year’s general election, I wrote about the urgency for the Conservative Party to embrace Nigel Farage if they wanted to capture a new generation of voters. Despite baffling some of its readers in the comment section, my argument is being vindicated with each passing week.
As well as putting Reform only 1 per cent behind Labour, the first YouGov voting intention poll since last year’s election shows the party far ahead of the Conservatives with voters aged 18-24, leading them by 14 per cent. The only age group which leans Tory are the over 65s. If demography is destiny then there’s a ticking time bomb lying in wait for the Conservatives unless they accept the need for radical change.
The Conservative party has been smashed to just 121 MPs whilst Reform UK is cementing its foothold on the green benches. Rupert Lowe, Reform’s MP for Great Yarmouth, is gaining massive traction on X (formerly Twitter) through his unfiltered and persistent attacks on the bonkers wokeness that seems to have infiltrated every aspect of civil society.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage continues to dominate the airwaves and, despite their apparent short-lived disagreement, he is driving the political narrative in large part due to his partnership with the tech-billionaire-turned-activist Elon Musk. Reform is gaining the members and crucially they are gaining the money. They are proving a serious party and effective opposition as their rapid traction in the polls demonstrates.
At the same time, the Conservative Party, despite the efforts of some strong voices within, does not seem to be making the inroads necessary fast enough. Too often, CCHQ and the leadership are reacting to events rather than setting the agenda. We have a Labour Government which has become unpopular more quickly than any other in history. Yet the Conservatives are not benefiting from this and its position in the polls is largely unchanged since the election.
What is most concerning is if the situation remains the same. If we get to the next election, and the political right is divided, then we risk a realistic possibility that Labour could cling to power through a minority government or rainbow coalition with the smaller left-wing parties.
Consider how much damage Labour has already inflicted on the country in the seven months since they entered office. They are crippling our economy through incompetence and malevolent envy. They are handing our sovereign territory away and capitulating to China. Come 2029, would Britain be able to survive another five years?
Other than style and form, it is not clear to me what real matters of substance there are that separate Reform and the Conservatives. Examining their manifestos at the last election, it is evident that they are both believers in a low-tax, low-immigration and tough-on-crime country with properly funded armed forces.
The last 14 years of Conservative administrations, although they had many achievements, sadly detracted from this vision. However, the swing in popularity to Reform shows that this remains a popular offering to the electorate.
It is simply true, that if the Conservatives had remained the party of optimism, freedom, and competence that they once were under strong leadership, like that of Margaret Thatcher, then Reform wouldn’t exist. However, because they do, we need to face reality and the challenges they pose.
The recent debate and renewed calls for an inquiry into the national grooming gang scandal have also already shown that Reform and the Conservatives can work effectively together to hold the Government to account. With Reform’s social media megaphone, and the Conservatives’ parliamentary numbers, they could and should work in unison to fight against Labour’s gross failings on the economy, their anti-common sense woke agenda, and their insistence on pursuing a foreign policy at odds with our true national interest.
Given we are witnessing a tectonic shift in America, with the ascendance of Donald Trump to the White House once again, the Conservatives must make use of Farage whilst Labour risks tarnishing our most important alliance. Across Europe too, the right is morphing into something quite different from the days of centrist social liberalism. If the Conservative Party ignores these trends it risks ending its 191-year-plus legacy and consigning itself to the dustbin of history.
Keir Starmer is reportedly already fears that he will face a combined populist right at the next election. But if the Conservatives and Reform remain divided, then they would be both to blame if Labour retain the keys to No 10.
If we truly believe that the nation is at stake because of Labour’s incompetence, then it is simply imperative for the leadership of both parties to get together and discuss a way forward. To take the words of the great father of conservatism himself, Edmund Burke, to conserve we must reform.
