Puncturing poison politics: what if Northern Ireland elected MPs using a more proportional electoral system?

Ag meath pholaitíocht nimhneach: tá córas thoghchánach Mhainistir Thiar níos chionmhairí de dhith orainn.

Cúpla mí ó shin, scríobh mé – comhúdar leis an Ollamh Brendan O’Leary – alt san Irish Times, ag déanamh anailís faoin dtoghchán Mainistir Thiar i mbliana. Cuireadh béim ansin cé chomh neamh-chothromach atá an córas thoghchánach ‘faigheann-buaiteoir-barraíocht’ (FBB) i gcomhréir leis an gcéatadán de votaí (tábla figiúirí thíos). Is córas thoghchán fíor-fhrithdaonlathach é seo. Spreagann FBB i gcroi na hiarrthóirí dul thar fóir ina gcuid cainte agus iad i mbun feachtais.

In a recent Irish Times article, Brendan O’Leary and I analysed the Westminster election results. We emphasized how unfair and disproportionate the ‘winner-takes-all’ (WTA; sometimes called first-past-the-post, but there is no ‘post’!) comparing the party seat percentage to the party vote percentage. WTA is a truly undemocratic electoral system. It encourages candidates to make extreme comments during election campaigns.

De ghnáth, déanann tromlach uafásach mór s’againne iarracht fíochmhar éalú ón meon seicteach suim-a-náid agus muid go múinte mánla ag bualadh le daoine ón ‘dtaobh eile’ (cibé rud a chiallaíonn sé sin). Ansin, tagann toghchán Mainistir Thiar. Bogann roinnt íarrthóirí sléibhte chun spreagadh a chur ina mbonn taca. Ní bhíonn meas madra ag na polaiteoirí sin don vótálaithe measartha, mar níl tromlach de dhith orthu. Níl ach an vóta is mó de dhith orthu. Thig leat a bheith tofa le 24% den vóta (m.sh. Béal Feirste Theas i 2015).

For the vast majority of us, we habitually make a huge effort to avoid inhabiting a sectarian zero-sum mentality and we try to behave in a decent way when we meet people from ‘the other side’ (whatever that means). And then along comes a Westminster election. Some candidates move mountains to energise their voting base. They couldn’t care less about moderate voters, because they don’t need a majority of the vote. All they need is to obtain the biggest vote. One can get elected in WTA elections with as little as 24% of the vote (e.g. South Belfast in 2015).

Dúirt Yeats “Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold, mere anarchy is loosed upon the world”. Bhí an ceart aige. Éist le Niall Ghearrthóir nó leis an ERG nó le Dónal Dhruma: bheadh bodhaire na mílte bodhráin ort agus torann a nguthanna diúltacha ag cur isteach go nimhneach go smior ort.

W.B. Yeats wrote the oft-quoted “Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold, mere anarchy is loosed upon the world”. It is oft-quoted because it is wise and true. Listen to Nigel Farage or ERG politicians or Donald Trump: you would be deafened from the noise of their voices of negativity penetrating poisonously to the very marrow of your existence.

Ó thárla Bratimeacht, tá an DUP cosúil le dhá pháirtí polaitíochta. Na TPanna i Londain (na FBBs) ag cozyáil suas leis na Gearrthóirí, agus na CTRanna i Stormont ag roinnt cumhacht (uaireanta!) le Sinn Féin. Go minic a bhí an eireball Londaineach ag croitheadh an madra Tionólach. Muid a d’fhulaing. Ach bheadh an bróg ar an chos eile dá mbeadh ar Nigel Dodds nó Sammy Wilson smaoineamh ar aistrithe a mhealladh ó vótálaithe UUP nó Alliance: ní bheadh said chomh gung-hó baic dhobhearnaithe a chaitheamh síos le taobh an teorainn.

Since Brexit, the DUP have been like two separate parties. The MPs in London (the WTAs) cozying up to the Faragists, and the MLAs in Stormont sharing power (occasionally!) with Sinn Féin. It was often that the London tail was wagging the Assembly dog. But it was us that suffered. The shoe would have been on the other foot had Nigel Dodds or Sammy Wilson to worry about attracting transfers from the UUP or Alliance: they wouldn’t have been so gung-ho trying to plonk impenetrable obstacles along the Border.

An bhfuil aon réiteach den scéil briste thoghcháin na Breataine? Bhuel, má bhreatnaíonn tú ar thaobh dheas den teorainn, bíonn toghchán uachtaránach ann gach seacht mbliana. Is toghchán é sin a mbaineann úsáid as an gcóras thoghchánach ionadaíocht chionmhar suíochán amháin (TICSA). Vótálaíonn tú a haon, a dó, a trí, srl. An difríocht i gcomparáid le toghchán don Tionól ná ní thoghtar ach iarrthóir amháin. Mar sin, bheadh ar iarrthóir, má fhaigheann sé/sí mionlach den vóta, aistrithe a fháil chun 50%+1 vóta a bhain amach. Sin sárchumhacht an córas seo. Bíonn ar na hiarrthóirí iompar dea-bhéasach a bheith acu agus iad ag lorg aistrithe ó vótálaithe a gcuid naimhdhe polaitíochta. Níl aon tairbhe d’iarrthóirí a bheith mar tarbh i siopa síneach: ní bhfaighidh said aistrithe ó lucht a gcáinte de dheasca a mí-iompar.

How can Britain’s broken electoral system be fixed? The Republic’s presidential electoral system offers a solution. Every seven years, there is an election using PR-STV. The constituency is the entire 26 counties but only one person is elected. So you vote 1, 2, 3, etc. as usual. Because only one person is elected, the successful candidate needs 50%+1 votes. Typically, this needs extra counts where transfers from excluded candidates are distributed. And this is the system’s superpower. Candidates need to be well-behaved to attract transfers from those who gave their first preference to their political enemies. There is no benefit to a candidate behaving like a bull in a China shop: they won’t get transfers from their detractors.

Cé a bheadh mar Theachtaí Pharlaimint, dá mbeadh TICSA againn? Ríomh mé na figiúirí ó 2022 (toghchán Thionóil) agus ó 2023 (toghcháin áitiúla) agus ó 2024 (toghchán Mhainistir Thiar). Scéal níos dearfaí don SDLP agus don UUP: gheobhadh a n-iarrthóirí aistrithe ó Alliance (agus ó roinnt SF agus DUP, faoi seach) agus bhuafadh said níos mó suíochán. Scéal níos diúltaí do na páirtí eile. Tá lucht na n-aontachtaí níos treise ná vótálaithe Alliance in áiteacha ina bhfuil Alliance láidir.

Who might be the MPs, if the PR-STV single-member electoral system was used? I number-crunched the last three elections. The results are more positive for the SDLP and the UUP: their candidates would attract transfers from Alliance (and SF and DUP, respectively), so would win more seats. The other parties would shrink somewhat. Wherever Alliance is strong, unionism is stronger.

1. An Bhanna Uachtair [Upper Bann] – DUP (gan athrú / no change)
2. An Dún Theas [South Down] – SDLP (athrú / gain)
3. An Dún Thuaidh [North Down] – UUP (athrú / gain)
4. Aontroim Theas [South Antrim] – UUP (gan athrú / no change)
5. Aontroim Thoir [East Antrim] – UUP (athrú / gain)
6. Aontroim Thuaidh [North Antrim] – DUP (athrú / gain)
7. Béal Feirste Theas & Lár an Dúin [South Belfast & Mid Down] – SDLP (gan athrú / no change)
8. Béal Feirste Thiar [West Belfast] – SF (gan athrú / no change)
9. Béal Feirste Thoir [East Belfast] – DUP (gan athrú / no change)
10. Béal Feirste Thuaidh [North Belfast] – SF (gan athrú / no change)
11. Feabhal [Foyle] – SDLP (gan athrú / no change)
12. Fear Manach & Tír Eoghain Theas [Fermanagh & South Tyrone] – SF (gan athrú / no change)
13. Gleann an Lagáin [Lagan Valley] – UUP (athrú / gain)
14. Iúr Cinn Trá & Ard Mhacha [Newry & Armagh] – SF (gan athrú / no change)
15. Lár Ulaidh [Mid Ulster] – SF (gan athrú / no change)
16. Loch Cuan [Strangford] – DUP (gan athrú / no change)
17. Londain-Dhoire Thoir [East Londonderry] – UUP (athrú / gain)
18. Tír Eoghain Thiar [West Tyrone] – SF (gan athrú / no change)

Sin toradh cothrom idir aontachtas agus náisiúnachas (9-9): SF-6 (-1); UUP-5 (+4); DUP-4 (-1); SDLP-3 (+1); Alliance-0 (-1); TUV-0 (-1); Alex Easton-0 (-1). Bheadh suíochán breise ag na haontachtaí. Bheadh níos mó ná 50% den vóta ag gach Teachta Pharlaimint. Toradh níos daonlathaigh ná i mbliana. Bheadh méadú ó 4 go 8 do na páirtí measartha (UUP agus SDLP, ailtirí Chomhaontú Bhéal Feirste Aoine an Chéasta).

This result would be a draw between unionism and nationalism. Unionists would have an extra seat. Every MP would have achieved more than 50% of the vote, a more democratic result than currently applies. The moderate communal parties, the SDLP and UUP – architects of the BGFA – would increase their combined number of MPs from 4 to 8.

Féidirtheacht fíor-bhídeach an córas thoghchánach a hathrú. Ní vótálaíonn turcaithe don Nollaig! Ach, cén dochar a bheith ag bríonglóid? In sna bríonglóidí atá lonnaithe ár bhfírinní mhórálta chun domhan níos fearr a chruthú. Dúisímid: nílimid ach titithe i dtromluí na bhfírinní coimhlinteacha.

There’s a less than sub-microscopic chance of the electoral system changing. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas! But, shure there’s no harm in dreaming. In dreams lie our moral truths, guiding us to create a better world. We wake: we are plunged into a nightmare, a nightmare of conflictual realities.

Philip McGuinness taught at Dundalk Institute of Technology, plays mandolin with the Oriel Traditional Orchestra and loves to walk around and over the wee perfect hills of the Ring Of Gullion.