Screaming into the Abyss

I never intended for this to become a series. I had hoped that at each point some measure of sanity would prevail and that the combatants in the unfolding catastrophe in the Middle East would pull back from the brink rather than dance precariously upon it to see how far they could push things.

With the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah a few days ago and the invasion of Lebanon this morning it feels as if a moment of truth has arrived as to whether this will now expand into the regional war we have all been dreading since October 7th last year; a war between Israel and Iran which drags in their allies and proxies across the Middle East.

As I write this, the United States has reported that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile attack on Israel, and on that attack may ride the answer to the question.

Iran faces an appalling strategic choice, from their perspective. To attack in a way that Israel can defend against, or to attack to deal actual damage.

If the attack is on the scale that last April’s missile attack was, then Israel (with the help of its allies) should be able to prevent most of the missiles striking Israel. It is safe to imagine immense pressure will be placed on Prime Minister Netanyahu to not drastically retaliate against Iran from the United States in an attempt to contain the erupting conflagration to the greatest degree possible. However, such an attack would severely undermine Iranian deterrence and do nothing to stop Israel from inflicting further damage on Hezbollah, an organisation Iran has spent decades and billions building into the fighting force it is today. Israel would resume doing what it is now clear has been its overarching goal all along, using the strategic opportunity and public support afforded by the atrocity of October 7th to devastate Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’. The degradation or even destruction of their proxies would be an immense setback for Iran and one they would be loathe to accept, but the alternative of war has stayed their hand so far. Whilst many have made the point for example that Hamas, as an idea, cannot be destroyed, Israel has done a thorough job on the dismantling of Hamas the military organisation. Iran has not stepped in to save Hamas, and if this coming attack is a damp squib, they’ll fail to save Hezbollah too.

However, if Iran’s missile attack is on a greater scale that what was seen in April, or if a missile gets through that causes mass civilian casualties in Israel, then Iran will have gifted Netanyahu the casus belli he has sought for years to strike the Iranian nuclear program and drag the United States into a conflict along with it. Iran clearly doesn’t want war given they have backed down or restrained themselves in the face of every provocation so far, but they also clearly wish to main their proxies as part of their attritional strategy against Israel and the Israelis are determined that they will no longer tolerate these threats.

And so now they must make a choice. And we all have to live with the consequences.

I’m a firm believer in Irish unity and I live in the border regions of Tyrone.