Showtime or substance: Head to head with Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin’s promises on all island futures look weak

This week in the Irish Times Fintan O’Toole asks why is this election so dull? There are probably several answers to that question, the most obvious being that in calling the shortest possible campaign period the government parties likely wanted that way.

The other is that because of multi member constituencies Irish elections are esoteric affairs making it impossible to guess at how each party is likely to fare. Opinion polls measure at most first and second preferences nationally, not regionally.

Transfer patterns really start to break down in the bigger four and five seater constituencies along lines of locality and the popularity of each candidate. This explains why in recent times independents have become such an influential force.

It means the horse race of commentary of the type we’ve seen in the US and the UK elections doesn’t really occur in Irish elections, any more than it does in Denmark (being a unrepentant Dano-phile I watched their 2022 election with deep interest).

The other thing about southern elections that makes them hard to interpret well is that there’s no great range ideological options amongst those parties that do mount serious bids for power. The ability to coalesce conditions most offerings.

One of the steady patterns we’ve seen in this year of many elections has been a tide of anti incumbency. If this was repeated in Ireland then the party most likely to benefit would be Sinn Féin. Indeed they are running a record number of candidates (71).

The key to anti incumbency sentiment (inflation and and a steep rise in the cost of living) is a factor in the Republic too as are some of the key issues that Sinn Féin has based its tenure on as lead opposition party, like housing, health and homelessness.

Yet the party’s dropping poll numbers prior to the campaign suggest they have struggled to paint themselves as a credible lead in an alternative government. People who voted for them in 2020 have broken for the independents, who are polling level with the big three.

This year’s local elections did see an improvement in their disastrous 2019 performance but only by a couple of percentage points. And the party has struggled to control some of the TDs who won in 2020 in its rapid expansion (three have defected).

Belfast headquarters have sent in ‘fixers’ to places like Laois to steady the nerves of local party campaigners. They have set terms of what success looks like for the public leadership that may have implications for Mary Lou McDonald afterwards.

However the last month or two of controversies seemed to have taken a toll on Sinn Féin’s preparedness for this campaign. Presentation wise McDonald was her usual calm self in the RTE debate but hasn’t had a key issue to help her dominate like she did in 2020.

I’ve long argued that Sinn Féin lack of activism whilst in ministerial power in Northern Ireland would act as a leaden weight when it came to transition into serious governmental power in the south. McDonald’s rhetorical skills help, but showtime alone is not enough.

I suspect the party will do better than many expected going into this election, holding on to most of what they have. The penalty they will likely pay is against abstract gains it made in polling between 2020 and the campaign today. Here’s a few reasons why.

Housing features every media conversation you hear. People are not happy with the situation, and Sinn Féin have based most of their opposition around having an alternative to the government’s handling of the issue (which is slower than promised).

It ought to have made Sinn Fein a shoo in for a massive bounce in the polls, yet it hasn’t. Some of the answer is that people see houses and apartments going up (if not in their area, then in Dublin) and perhaps it is that they see it as a bird in hand.

The other aspect is Sinn Féin’s credibility (or lack of it) in terms of their policy alternatives. We can probably see this gap more easily in its slim offering on North South relations compared to its closest government rival, Fianna Fáil, than in housing.

All politics is a mix of showtime and substance. Sinn Féin does show time better than most of their political rivals whether they be in the south or the north. And as we have seen, that matters. But its unwillingness to invest in policy puts limits on its growth.

It’s 180 degree flip on immigration in the south, from laid back uber liberal to setting up a register for non citizens is an attempt to win back a key demographic on an issue that’s barely raised its head in this campaign. You can do that only if policy doesn’t matter.

Whatever dark threats Sinn Féin’s Belfast headquarters may make, the southern party has very few attractive alternatives to McDonald. None of her frequently mentioned rivals in the parliamentary party could thole the heat never mind put on a show like she can.

As the table above shows, Belfast doesn’t do policy, only standing orders [Ah, the traditional approach? – Ed). The truth is that regarding substance party headquarters has ensured that Ms McDonald has nothing to sell but the show itself.

Even Trump, political showman par excellence, had tariffs, trans gender and border security with which to call out the blue collar vote that put him back in the White House. It remains to be seen if showtime alone will ever be enough for a SF winning ticket.

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty