The Conservative herd moves behind Kemi Badenoch – Politics.co.uk

Defending the government’s early release scheme this morning, justice secretary Shabana Mahmood said the prison service was only “one bad day from disaster” when she took over the brief in July.

“I had to take immediate, emergency measures… in order to stabilise the crisis in our prisons and buy us some time to think of longer-term solutions”, Mahmood told Sky News.

Keir Starmer, meanwhile, is said to share the public’s anger at scenes of prisoners celebrating their early release. But, the prime minister’s official spokesman added, “it is shocking that any government should ever inherit the crisis that this government has when it comes to our prisons.”

The political arguments here reflect the broader debate about the grim extent of Labour’s inheritance in government. I had more to say on that in my note yesterday; read that here if you missed it.

But today: some thoughts on the Conservative leadership contest as the notorious Tory “herd”, with but a few weeks remaining, begins to coalesce around a clear frontrunner.

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The Conservative herd moves

The Conservative “herd” has finally moved behind one of the party’s leadership candidates. And as one former Tory premier, infamously trampled by an MP stampede, once rued — such shifts tend to be decisive.

Indeed, whatever you think of Boris Johnson’s politics, his survey of an intrinsic Conservative instinct that compels party figures to coalesce at moments of intense pressure was, after all, well-founded. During his political career, the former prime minister first benefited from a ruthless outbreak of Tory harmony (as a successful leadership candidate in 2019) — and then, dramatically, fell foul of one.

In the end, the Conservative Party’s inability to revive its fortunes from 2022-2024 might be explained in terms of the failure of this time-honoured instinct. Rather than rallying behind the one objective that has historically sustained British Conservatism, electoral victory, MPs scattered to pursue their own selfish interests. After Liz Truss’ stunning implosion, the party wallowed under Rishi Sunak — torn by its MPs’ self-destructive activities.

And as the Conservative leadership field has painstakingly narrowed over recent months, there has been little sign of this fabled instinct’s resurgence. James Cleverly’s strong performance at the party’s conference pageant saw some party “big beasts” break for the former home secretary. But the Cleverly’s rise was ultimately short-lived; MPs’ self-indulgent chicanery saw to that.

It is also worth stressing that the Conservative leadership race is rapidly coming to a close. Party members can continue to vote until the 31st October — but activists tend to vote early in these contests, a fact one imagines is doubly true for a protracted race. Tory members have had months to form their preferences and will, presumably, have voted accordingly. (It’s therefore unlikely any final Badenoch-Jenrick debates, as the latter has consistently called for, will shift the dial.)

And, lo, with mere days of substantial argument to go, it would seem that the Conservative herd has broken definitely for Kemi Badenoch, the former business secretary.

In recent weeks, a venerable constellation of Tory movers and shakers have declared their support for Badenoch, leaving Robert Jenrick looking increasingly bereft. Damian Green, the former chair of the One Nation Conservative caucus, symbolically endorsed Badenoch earlier this month as the candidate best placed to make the Tory party “relevant in the new era.”

Green, who served as the de facto deputy PM for a year under Theresa May, had initially endorsed moderate contender Tom Tugendhat this contest — but backed Badenoch upon the shadow security minister’s elimination. It mirrors Green’s shift to the Boris Johnson camp in the 2019 leadership contest — after he originally supported Matt Hancock.

Following Green, the endorsements of Lord (William) Hague, Lord (Nicholas) Soames, Lord (Michael) Ashcroft and Andrew Mitchell in recent weeks — all for Badenoch — reflect the collective reasoning of the Conservative establishment. As for “big beasts” on the Tory right, Badenoch is also supported by ex-cabinet ministers Sir David Davis and Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

Jenrick, meanwhile, was this morning endorsed by former home secretary Suella Braverman.

While I am tempted to leave the analysis on that note — it’s worth stressing that the latter stages of Jenrick’s campaign have been defined by his vow to march the best of the Tory party back to the political frontline as leader. It’s a pitch that Badenoch’s wide support among Tory grandees, in the end, utterly undermines.

Moreover, Penny Mordaunt (who is not backing anyone this contest) pointedly met with Badenoch earlier this month, days after Jenrick promised to bring her back “via by-election if willing.” The former commons leader is, of course, well used to others vowing to install her “like a new boiler” in some office.

In terms of actual endorsements then, the Tory “best of” that it is in Jenrick’s power to reunite ultimately consists of Suella Braverman and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg. That may appeal to a significant slice of the Tory activist base — but it’s far from the critical mass that Badenoch has built.

Accordingly, it would seem that Jenrick’s ploy to run the membership stage of this leadership election as a de facto referendum on the ECHR has alienated much of the Conservative ecosystem that he should have been working overtime to court. His “unity” pitch, undoubtedly, has been undermined by his insistence that shadow cabinet ministers and future Tory candidates would need to sign up to leaving the ECHR under his leadership.

To take a longer view, that Badenoch has managed to emerge as, at least, the second preference of the Tory herd suggests she will earn a period of stability if elected leader. She, like Jenrick, was backed by only a third of the parliamentary party in the last MP voting round; and so Tory stability seemed far from an inevitability a few weeks ago.

For now then, the instincts of the Conservative membership and activist base have aligned. The Tory herd has moved. The big question that will revolve around Badenoch’s tenure as leader — if she does secure the Conservative crown — will be whether she can retain its backing over a full, arduous parliamentary term.

Lunchtime briefing

Jenrick says he would appoint James Cleverly as deputy Conservative leader

Lunchtime soundbite

‘The last person that I would take advice from in a leadership contest, I think, is Michael Gove’

— Robert Jenrick rejects Michael Gove’s claim that he would be vulnerable as Conservative leader because the country has had enough of “Tory boys”.

Now try this…

‘How to fix the prisons crisis’
The political bidding war over tougher sentences must end, writes David Gauke. Via The New Statesman (Paywall)

‘“Old Right” Group Labour First Launches New Parliamentary Network’
PoliticsHome reports.

‘Have the British public had enough of Tory Boys?’
ConservativeHome’s William Atkinson writes.

On this day in 2022:

Badenoch endorses Sunak in significant leadership race development