It seems a long time ago now. But in his speech to the Conservative Party Conference last week, James Cleverly declared:
“We will beat Reform by being the best version of ourselves, not a pale version of anyone else. So no mergers, no deals.”
A couple of days earlier Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg had said at a fringe meeting that the Conservatives should stand down in seats where Reform UK came second to Labour in July:
“Let’s for once model ourselves on David Cameron and make a big and generous offer…
“What if we were to say at the next election, as we did to the liberal unionists, we will not oppose Reform in those 98 seats? I would certainly be open to that as a real opportunity for Reform to win seats from Labour. I think it would help us, it will help them. And we will not win if we do not reunite.”
In the narrow sense of electoral pacts, I think that Cleverly is right and Rees-Mogg is wrong. (A shocking comment for me to make as campaign manager for Sir Jacob to be made the next Party Chairman.) As Disraeli said, the Conservative Party is a national party or it is nothing. We should fight every seat at the next General Election. We have no “no-go areas.” We seek candidates willing to fight in the most hostile of terrain in the most heroic manner. That is a point of principle. But it is also one of practical politics. Any retreat from that position would prompt considerable dismay within the Conservative Party.
The 2011 Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election did prompt some unwise suggestions (apparently from Andrew Mitchell amongst others) that the Conservatives should stand aside for our coalition partners the Lib Dems. That idea was dropped.
But what of deals after the polls have closed? Supposing that in the local elections next May, the Labour Party gets a drubbing in Thurrock losing seats to both the Conservatives and to Reform UK. Perhaps a deal between the Conservatives and Reform UK might prove the most viable way to form an administration. A shared agenda based on cutting the Council Tax, beautiful new housing, embracing civic pride, and slashing bureaucracy and woke indulgences might be agreed.
Then let us further consider if such a benign pioneering effort in Thurrock (or Durham, or the Isle of Wight or wherever) might lead the way for the rest of us. Bong! In comes the exit poll for the 2029 General Election. The Conservatives are the largest party but short of an overall majority. Reform UK is still a minor party but is set to win over 50 seats – as the results come in traditionally rock-solid Labour seats in Barnsley, Gateshead and Sunderland have fallen to them. Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband is out in Doncaster North. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy holds on against them in Wigan after a recount. A Conservative/Reform UK Coalition Government is formed. Caroline Nokes defects to the Lib Dems.
As already noted, deals after the electorate has spoken are a different matter from trying to set such matters up beforehand. Yet while running a full slate of candidates, there can also be a nudge and a wink. We have seen this week how efforts at tactical voting can go awry. At the General Election this year Labour and the Lib Dems notionally competed against each other – but we could see they had an implicit understanding about which seats to target. It worked very efficiently for them.
In terms of national campaigning the Lib Dems and Labour went easy on each other. Sir Ed Davey’s appalling record as postal minister when he was in denial about the Horizon scandal should have been far more vigourously challenged by Labour and their media allies. But he was allowed to get away wth doing silly amusement park rides. In return, the Lib Dem leader was careful to avoid attacking the Labour Party.
On a similar basis, the Conservatives should not spend their time denouncing Reform UK. Attacks on them for being racist or lunatic are (nearly always) unfair and thus ineffective. The reality is that they are a repository for protest votes from Conservatives who felt disillusioned with the last Conservative Government for entirely understandable reasons. Denouncing them as nutters is not the best way to encourage them to return to the fold.
Much of this will happen automatically. Labour are in Government so will inevitably be the main target for the Conservatives and Reform UK. Which constituencies each party will target will also be pretty obvious in many cases.
We also know that the next leader of the Conservatives will be strong, clear and unapologetic about their Conservative beliefs. Some pundits fret about a “lurch to the right.” Such crass analysis lacks much meaning. For instance, would a radical liberalisation of planning regulation to increase the housing supply be a “lurch to the right”? Would cutting state spending and taxation back to the level we saw under Gordon Brown? Would cutting back immigration to an extent the great majority of voters would favour? So often those claiming to speak for the “centre ground” are really are on the territory of the smug and faddish fringe.
It is true though, that with Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick, the Conservatives will have a restored self-confidence and clarity about what we believe. That will leave Reform UK with less mileage in attacking us and a further motive in going after Labour – who are offering plenty of scope.
There will be some limits. It is right for Conservatives to be steadfast in our support for Ukraine, the House of Lords and first past the post – to give some examples of policy divergence with Reform UK. It will also be tempting to be provoked. Nigel Farage, like his friend Donald Trump, has an inclination to make personal attacks. Yet the shrewdest Conservative strategy should generally be to turn the other cheek. To take to the airwaves of GB News with bonhomie. To state our Conservative case with good cheer and invite all Conservatives to join us. You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar, my mother always used to say.
