The Irish general election draws near

Far from causing instability as some detractors of proportional representation allege, Ireland’s politics have generally been a picture of stability over the past century. Governments have generally served their full term, or something close to it, and elections have resulted in an orderly transfer of power from one government to the next – even between the parties representing factions who had once been at war.

For many years, the two civil war parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael dominated the Irish political landscape generally achieving 80% of the vote, with Labour and various smaller parties and independents fighting over the scraps of the remaining 20%. In the past century, Fianna Fail has led the government for about 57 years and Fine Gael and its predecessors for about 42.

Fianna Fail lost its pre-eminence following a split in the Haughey years, forming a coalition with the Progressive Democrats, and later with Labour and the Greens, and finally with Fine Gael itself. It’s huge fall from grace came in 2011 following the financial crash, when it lost 57 of its 77 seats. Fine Gael, meanwhile, has fallen from a high of 76 seats in 2011 to 35 now. Combined, the two parties achieve less than 50% of the vote now and will probably need outside support if they are to form a government again.

Labour achieved a high of 19.3% under Dick Spring in 1992 but had fallen to 4.4% by 2020. Much of the slack has been taken up by taken up by Sinn Féin, who have risen from being a 1% party in the 1980’s to a high of 24.5% in 2020, when it became the largest party. Their support reached as high as 35% in opinion polls in 2022 but has roughly halved since. Support for the Greens has also halved from a high of 7.1% in 2020 to about 3-4% now.

Initially much of this support went to independents of various hues, but more latterly some of it has migrated back to Fine Gael and Fianna Fail as the issue of who will form the next government comes to the fore. Support for independents has traditionally risen mid-term when the popularity of a government declines but the opposition fails to inspire confidence. Voters have a tendency to “park” their vote with independents, hedging their bets while making up their minds as to who they want to form the next government.

All the minor parties – the Greens, Labour, Social Democrats, People before Profit and Aontú have flat-lined at or below 5% with the Social Democrats marginally ahead. The various independent groupings and micro parties tend not to be disaggregated in polling and so it is difficult to assess their individual level of support. It will be interesting to see how well the overtly anti-immigrant and far right candidates and micro-parties do, given the prominence of the immigration and housing issues.

Given a combined support for independents and micro-parties in the 15-20% range, it is hard not to see at least some of them having a pivotal role in the formation of the next government. Voters would be well advised to read their manifestos to make sure they know what they are getting if they do vote for some of the lesser known parties and individual independents.

Given the anti-incumbency mood sweeping democratic politics globally, it is hard to see the current government surviving unscathed despite a generally positive track record of economic recovery from the risks of Brexit and the pandemic. Housing, healthcare, childcare, and public transport infrastructure delivery problems have left many voters impatient with the rate of progress and sceptical of promises to do better in the future.

But Trump’s victory may also encourage a note of caution in the electorate, given that our current economic model could be under threat. Adding domestic political uncertainty to a great deal of global economic and political uncertainty may not be an attractive scenario for many. We have seen the chaos the Brexit years brought to the UK. With the Ukraine and Israeli wars still raging and domestic unemployment and inflation low, at least some voters may not be minded to rock the boat too much.

That said, I doubt many will be impressed by the “auction politics” being pursued by the major parties and concerned at the sustainability of the current boom in the state’s finances. Many, especially younger voters, may feel it is time to give the opposition parties a chance to show what they can do, given that the government parties appear to be promising more of the same.

I will leave it to readers here to comment on last nights TV debate and the many issues and spats which have arisen during the course of the election campaign to date regarding particular policies and candidates. The Irish political party structure has seen significant fragmentation since the days of FF/FG dominance, and I expect that trend to continue.

With almost half their parliamentary party including former Leader and Deputy Leader Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney not standing for re-election, FG could have difficulty getting many of their lesser known candidates across the line. Sinn Féin, if they have got their candidate selection and numbers right, could do significantly better than their opinion poll numbers suggest. Fianna Fáil, with their generally older voter profile may be better at getting their vote out. As always, local factors and personal popularity will play a significant role in all constituencies.

But whatever the result, let us celebrate the fact that we have a vibrant democracy where many different voices can be heard and receive a fair representation based on votes cast. We have a generally non-partisan civil service, an independent judiciary, a free press, and a political process not subject to the industrial levels of bribery – aka political donations – seen in some other jurisdictions. In casting our votes, let us remember that these things are increasingly under threat in the world around us and can never be taken for granted.

Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.