The sudden abandonment yesterday of the Scottish Government’s dreadful proposals for a legislative ban on so-called “conversion practices” is a big victory for this website, which has campaigned hard against it since it was first mooted almost two years ago.
Despite saying as recently as May that it was “committed to continuing with that legislation”, and the new First Minister making a huge fuss about it at Edinburgh Pride just a handful of weeks ago, the administration has clearly realised that as well as being massively unpopular it would probably be another disastrous high-profile failure along the lines of the Gender Recognition Reform Act, as it too would be likely to be in conflict with UK law.
So on the face of it it’s just a “pragmatic step” to avoid wasting any more time, energy and political capital that could be better spent trying to turn the government’s fortunes around, and leaving Labour to do all the dirty work instead.
But it may turn out far more significant than that.
Because the Scottish Greens, still stinging at being hoofed out of government by Humza Yousaf, are now threatening to vote against the budget as a result, which could lead to the fall of the entire government unless Swinney can persuade one of the other parties at Holyrood to back it.
It’s very difficult to see why any of them would. The SNP is on its knees, and all the opposition parties would relish a general election. The only possible exception is the Tories, although they might be keen to get their new leader – looking increasingly like being the impressive Russell Findlay – straight into some serious action.
The Tories are also in poor shape and are worried about the rapid growth of Reform, who current polling suggests would find themselves with 8-9 seats under Holyrood’s electoral system – the same number as the Greens. But it’s a risk they might well be willing to run for the prize of ending the pro-indy majority of the last 13 years.
That’s far from certain, though. A deal for the Tories to back the budget is probably more likely than it’s been at any time since 2011, with Swinney and (particularly) Kate Forbes considerably more palatable to Tory supporters than Nicola Sturgeon or Humza Yousaf were, and the new leader would probably prefer to have some time to settle in and start repairing the damage of Douglas Ross’s hapless time in charge before going to the voters.
But we’re still struggling to see what the SNP could offer the Tories. There’s no money going spare, and with most of the “woke” policies of the Bute House Agreement already in the bin there isn’t much they could sacrifice either. The most plausible option would seem to be dialling back on income tax, which as a bonus would also be an attractive prospect to the middle classes who are increasingly deserting the SNP and who Swinney is desperate to win back.
This would of course be a huge betrayal of the party’s core messaging over the last decade, but the hasty dumping of the conversion bill shows that that isn’t necessarily a problem. It would also bring even more strain on the government’s finances, but we know they’re willing to get the axe out to try to save their own skins so it’s unlikely to be a big obstacle, particularly as the higher rates haven’t brought in much money anyway.
(Such a prospective deal might also be deployed just to try to call the Greens’ bluff and get them to back the budget or risk being held responsible for an SNP/Tory “coalition”.)
So it looks like we’re in for a more interesting few days than we might have been expecting. From the perspective of the independence movement, a general election – however it pans out – is almost certainly better than watching this lame-duck SNP administration limping its way to 2026. Whether you think the party needs rebuilding or completely destroying, both of those things are better done now than later.
We’ll still be surprised, on balance, if that’s what happens. The grasping charlatans now infesting the SNP will do just about anything and suffer any level of indignity to keep their fingernails dug into the bodywork of the gravy train for another 21 months. Some kind of wretched, craven backroom deal with either the Greens or the Tories (or the Greens just losing their nerve again) is the smart-money bet.
But ultimately being brought down by the conversion ban would be a richly deserved and fitting headstone for the calamitous reign of the SNP since 2015, so we’re going to allow ourselves at least a glimmer of hope that the grim two-year stalemate we’ve all been staring despairingly at might yet be unexpectedly averted.
