While working in Chicago for President Obama’s re-election campaign, the words of one man in a focus group the team ran will always stay with me.
He said that he’d voted for Obama in 2008 but for a far right “tea party” candidate at 2010’s mid-terms. We probed him further; we needed to understand why. What he wanted from life, he said, was to have a good job that would allow him to own his home and send his kids to college.
Because of the financial crash, he’d lost his job, his house had been repossessed and he could no longer afford to support his kids. So now, he explained, he would keep voting to fire politicians until his life got better.
14 years on, as many of us around the world reel from the news of Trump’s overnight election victory, and look to understand how and why this has been possible – and the work ahead to fully digest, accept and understand the impact of this result, it is this anecdote that comes back to me – and what it tells us about the motivation of many voters.
Devastating result for progressives
There is no sugar coating it. The result is bleak, bruising and bad beyond words. The consequences of this result will be felt around the world, for years to come. It is a grim day for anyone who cares about an economy that works for working people, women’s reproductive rights, democratic norms, the climate crisis and more.
Millions of Americans are waking up feeling fearful of how this will play out in their lives and what this means for the world. We will see more attacks on reproductive rights, even on things like IVF. We will see a devastating and harsh crackdown on immigration but also on immigrants who already live in the US; the chance of a trade war with China is high; and ongoing US support for Ukraine is now in question.
How did we get here? The post-election analysis will be long and no doubt painful – for the Democrats and beyond. But, it is not without good reason that political strategist after political strategist reaches for the famous 1992 Bill Clinton messaging, ‘it’s the economy stupid’ and ‘change vs more of the same’.
It is indeed a painful fact that a candidate can have the record Trump has in terms of their treatment of groups from women, to Latinos, to the Trans community to migrants – and yet this isn’t a deal breaker amongst the electorate as a whole in electing him when confronted with a cost of living crisis which has hurt working people across the country.
Indeed, in the hours of political commentary that have followed this morning’s results, shock and disbelief amongst presenters and pundits has abounded at the record support for Trump from Latino voters and People of Colour, along with a surprising uptick in support from younger women.
If we strip it back to ‘it’s the economy stupid’ and instead consider many of these voters as working class people, who are struggling to get by and cope with high costs, we can better understand why voting for a candidate who has polled ahead on the economy through the campaign might appeal.
And on the economy, like on so many issues, we see fact and feeling collide in the mind of voters – and feeling win out. Policies Biden has pushed, focused on infrastructure, investment and new green jobs are proving successful. The rub is that they are not yet flowing through to how people feel and therefore what they think. In the course of this campaign the Democrats relied heavily on using graphs and charts to underline this point and try and convince voters of the data. What it ultimately showed is this: feelings don’t believe facts.
Learning lessons from defeat
Would their feelings have been different if voters had believed that a Kamala Harris presidency would offer change rather than more of the same? Perhaps, perhaps not. One of the moments that might most underscore whether things could have turned out differently was the televised debate, where, asked what she would have done differently to the Biden administration, she gave the answer, ‘nothing’. Despite being a new candidate, the incumbency factor cost Kamala Harris dear.
It is too early for Democratic recriminations – but those will come. They will be a grim and probably damaging post-mortem. And the shockwaves will impact us here in the UK too.
For progressives in Britain – whether in Westminster or around the country, like the one million people who are part of the organisation I lead, 38 Degrees, who are united by their desire for a fairer, more respectful and more sustainable country – there are worries about what this might mean in terms of damaging government confidence in pursuing a progressive agenda.
READ MORE: ‘US election post-mortem: What went wrong for Kamala Harris – and what happens next?’
Many politicians have taken confidence from the bold and objectively successful policies of the last Democrat administration. The absence of the example of big bold progressive policies, and the presence of horrendous policies soon to come, could knock the Labour government’s confidence to stick to their guns on their big, bold, progressive pledges.
But I believe, as we enter this unknown new era, it is more important than ever that we stand up for the enduring values of fairness, respect and sustainability. This was a bad night but it doesn’t change the importance of that voice, it makes it more needed.
It is more important today that the government hears demands from public for progress – to counter the wobbles they might have from this defeat of progressives across the pond – the government must stick to its mandate of big bold action on the cost of living, to save the NHS, to protect our environment, and more.
The lessons from this disaster will take time to absorb. But whatever our next steps, the reality is that voters who feel their lives are not being served by politicians, or the economic system they live in, will continue to fire their representatives until their lives get better.
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