As expected it’s very close, too close to call. But any hope that the last few days was seeing a surge of support heading back to Kamala Harris has not materialised.
It’s 11pm in Washington DC and Democrats are nervous. The optimism of the last 48 hours has been replaced by a combination of desperate hope and fear as the votes continue to come in across the country.
Donald Trump is performing well, and better than in 2020. He appears to have effectively mobilised his vote in rural America and – with most of the votes counted – is on the verge of seizing back two swing states, Georgia and North Carolina.
Trump is also ahead in the crucial state of Pennsylvania too but it’s too early to predict the outcome that may well take days to be concluded. It’s now a must-win state to win for Harris whose potential path to the White House appears to have narrowed to the blue wall, including Michigan and Wisconsin.
Interestingly, according to exit polls, Harris does not appear to have won a greater percentage of the votes of American women than Biden did last time around. She will comfortably win the female vote but it has not moved the dial in a way that Democrats were hoping, or even expecting.
Meanwhile, Trump has significantly improved his performance in 2020 with other key segments of the voting population, particularly Latino voters.
It’s looking increasingly certain that the Republicans will win control of the US Senate before the evening is out here, and they are increasingly confident that they have the numbers to win the White House too.
It’s not over yet for Harris, and there is still a route to victory. But it is not the night the Democrats were hoping for a few hours ago and we all need to get prepared for this election contest to run for some time yet.
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