In a fascinating article in Irish Political Studies, Jon Tonge and Thomas Loughran draw on survey evidence to examine the attitudes of those who do not identify as nationalists or unionists, whom Tonge and Loughran dub the “neithers”. It is frequently noted that this group would hold the “casting vote” in any future constitutional referendum.
Details on the survey’s methodology are given at the end of this OP.
The article begins:
“This article draws upon new data from a recent Economic and Social Research Council funded project, Beyond Unionism and Nationalism, to examine whether electors in Northern Ireland identifying as neither nationalist/republican nor unionist/loyalist, the ‘neithers’, desire a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional status ….and which of those two options they prefer.”
This group is larger than voting figures suggest. Few neithers are interested in politics. Only 9% claimed to be either a great deal or quite a lot. This contrasts strongly with 41% of nationalists/republicans and 38% of unionists/loyalists. Almost two-thirds say they have ‘not very much’ or ‘no interest’ in politics.
Unsurprisingly they are less likely to vote in elections. “Most of these ‘neithers’ rarely or never vote in normal contests; 35% say they ‘rarely’ do so and 27% ‘never’. Only 20% say they ‘always’ vote, with a further 18% declaring they do ‘sometimes’.”
However, the authors note the possibility for higher turnout in certain circumstances.
“Average turnout in Northern Ireland elections since the Good Friday Agreement stands at 64% yet the referendum on that deal elicited a much larger turnout of 81%. Scotland’s 2014 referendum on independence yielded a turnout of 85% against a combined Westminster and Scottish Parliament election average this century of 60%. Election irregulars may join the usual voters when constitutional issues are at stake.”
“A border poll will probably see an increased turnout among the modest percentage of unionists and nationalists who do not normally vote and they are likely to be joined by a sizeable influx from ‘neithers’ who normally eschew voting. In a tight contest, the votes of non-unionists and non-nationalists could have a very important impact upon the outcome.”
Tonge and Loughran review the opinion polling on the constitutional question since the Brexit referendum and, while noting that there are important caveats to comparing these polls, including that online poll samples tend to over-represent the politically engaged and that many ask about a vote “tomorrow” on a prospectus which is undefined, conclude that:
“Support for a United Ireland in the seven full post-Brexit years averages 35%, lower by 14 percentage points than backing for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK. The period shows little movement in polling averages but there is evidence of the gap between the two sides having narrowed since Brexit.”
“The polling data indicates there are three minorities in play. The largest is supportive of the present constitutional arrangement but, averaging 49% since Brexit, it falls just short of an outright majority with a sizeable minority desirous of a United Ireland and a large percentage of constitutional undecideds also evident.”
The authors then discuss election results and census responses on religion and identity to demonstrate that they confirm the emergence of the three minorities.
When they do vote neithers are most likely to vote for the Alliance Party. 58% saying it is their preferred party. “Alliance is currently the largest party at 22% according to the 2023 NILT study, because many electors who do not vote claim to support the party but in terms of actual votes, Alliance lies in third place.”
Neithers can still be influenced by their backgrounds.
“Catholics among them are nearly twice as likely to support a United Ireland as they are to back the Union (44–25% with most of the remainder unsure). Protestant ‘neithers’ are almost eight times more likely (71–9%) to support the Union over Irish unity.”
Border Poll
The survey asked neithers:
However the propensity to chose the UK over a united Ireland changes with the likelihood to vote in normal elections.
Support for NI in the UK is 24% higher amongst neithers who always vote compared to those who never do so. Or as the authors put it:
“….those that ‘never’ vote offer least certainty on the constitutional question, with nearly two in every five respondents not offering a preference for either the Union or a United Ireland and neither constitutional option securing an outright majority. Support for Irish unity is consistently low across different categories of regularity of voting. Backing for Northern Ireland in the UK is most extensive among regular voters but tails off among those who never vote as the ‘don’t knows’ rise.”
The article then looks at whether neithers exhibit different attitudes depending on gender or age. According to the survey “women are less likely to back a border poll and united Ireland” but “the assumption that younger non-unionists and non-nationalists would be significantly more receptive to a border poll and a united Ireland is not upheld.”
The authors’ conclusion is that:
“The task of pro-unity campaigners therefore, assuming a lack of seeping from their own base and the non-transfer of those who have already declared for the Union, is to capture a substantial majority of electors who are neither unionist nor nationalist. The aggregate and bivariate data suggests this will be difficult. The lead for the Union is greatest among those who claim to always vote.
“The better news for supporters of Irish unity is that electorally detached non-unionists and non-nationalists are not significantly warmer towards the Union either, with many offering ‘don’t know’ as their constitutional response. As such, it is at least conceivable they might be worked upon, converted to support for Irish unity and prevailed upon to take part in a constitutional referendum.”
Information from the article on survey methodology
“The survey involved face-to-face interviews with 2,045 respondents, drawn from a representative sample of 5,128 electors across Northern Ireland, to ascertain whether they want a border poll and if they support a United Ireland or wish to remain in the UK…. The interviews took place between April and October 2022 across 144 electoral districts in Northern Ireland, with eight sampling districts used in each of Northern Ireland’s parliamentary and assembly constituencies. Each respondent was subject to a short screening interview, comprising three questions, asking their level of interest in politics, which political party they support and whether they identify as a ‘unionist/loyalist’, a ‘nationalist/republican’, or as ‘neither a unionist nor a nationalist’… The 2,045 interviewees self-identifying as neither unionist nor nationalist, 40% of the sample population, represent a percentage of ‘neithers’ broadly in line with regular Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) surveys of the electorate….These ‘neithers’ were then subject to a longer interview covering their constitutional and other political preferences. In terms of confidence in the reliability of the overall sample of all 5,128 respondents, Sinn Féin led on 27%, with the DUP second on 24%, percentages not greatly different from the 2022 Assembly election result during the period of polling.”
Michael Hehir is a retired sales and marketing manager. He studied in Northern Ireland but now lives between England and Italy.
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