Winter fuel payments row is a sign of things to come for Labour

In the long view, this score is consistent with Starmer’s showings in the early part of this year, having hovered around the -20 mark for months in opposition. But polling conducted in the wake of the election showed Starmer’s ratings rallying among the public, even inching toward net positive ratings.

But it wasn’t to be — thanks, in part, to the fraught and escalating row over the government’s plan to cut winter fuel payments.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves first announced that ministers would be scrapping the winter fuel allowance for all pensioners in England and Wales, except those on lower incomes who received pension credit, in a major commons statement on 29 July. At the time, she unveiled the Treasury’s discovery of a fiscal “black hole” left by her Conservative predecessors — an accusation which has featured centrally in Labour’s messaging since.

But it was Reeves’ decision to cut winter fuel payments that best seized the attention of the country — a fact reflected in the burgeoning furore in Westminster.

***Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website. Subscribe to our daily newsletter for all the latest news and analysis.***

Speaking to the BBC this morning, general secretary of Unite the Union Sharon Graham labelled the move “completely wrong”, even accusing the government of “picking the pocket of pensioners”. (The unions have come out fighting over the proposal — in some cases suggesting it signifies a return to Cameron-esque austerity measures). More on this angle here.

It was left to Dame Diana Johnson, a shadow Home Office minister, to defend the government across the media studios this morning. But Johnson notably slipped up when drawn on whether Labour could actually soften its stance ahead of the autumn budget in October. Having initially suggested that ministers were assessing measures to mitigate the impact of the cut, a government spokesperson later clarified Johnson “misspoke”.

This episode underlines both the minefield-like nature of this row and, perhaps more pertinently, that this is a government still in its infancy. On these terms, MPs are privately questioning the need to have such an intense row at this most early moment in the government’s lifespan.

Significantly, these arguments are setting the scene for a major commons vote tomorrow over the government’s winter fuel payments plan — in what looks set to be the biggest political moment since the general election in July. The Guardian reports that up to 50 Labour MPs could rebel in the vote, joining opposition parliamentarians from the Conservative Party, Liberal Democrats and SNP in resisting ministers’ plans.

So far, twelve Labour MPs have signed an Early Day Motion opposing the move, alongside a slew of other independent MPs, (mainly ex-Labour figures who lost the whip after backing an SNP amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the two-child benefit cap to be scrapped). Expect that figure to rise today.

In total, the rebellion on the two-child cap saw seven Labour rebels suspended from the parliamentary party, including former shadow chancellor John McDonnell. At the time, commentators cautioned that this combative display of authority would set an unsustainable standard for future commons fracas.

In this light, will Starmer take similarly authoritative action tomorrow amid a likely larger — and far more politically potent — rebellion? Commenting on this point yesterday, Starmer informed the BBC that punishments for dissenting MPs will be “a matter for the chief whip.”

The central vulnerability of Starmer’s “ruthless” party management approach — as practised in opposition and government — is that even the slightest sign of weakness could begin to slowly embrittle his iron authority. As such, the big problem haunting Starmer’s inner circle today is that the row over winter fuel payments could be a sign of things to come this parliament. The prime minister has repeatedly warned that the autumn budget on 30th October will contain further “tough” choices on public spending — ones that many Labour MPs are likely to find unpalatable and thus could attempt to shoot down.

This begs a question: could a significant rebellion compel Starmer to reevaluate his budget proposals — or will he move ahead as planned, risking further political capital in antagonising recalcitrant MPs?

Whatever the case, Starmer needs to nail his response tomorrow, lest he inadvertently gift his intra-party critics an early political victory.

Lunchtime briefing

Keir Starmer ‘wipes the floor’ with Conservative leadership hopefuls on best PM measure

Lunchtime soundbite

‘Nigel Farage isn’t a friend of the working class. He’s a fraud. A public school educated, private equity loving, NHS privatising, Putin apologist fraud’

— Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the Trades Union Congress, addresses the group’s annual conference.

Now try this…

‘The Tories used to be the party of business. Now they’re a joke’
Politico’s John Johnston writes that the Conservative conference is generating shrugs among industry chiefs.

‘Being in opposition is like “guerrilla warfare”, says former David Cameron aide’
Via PoliticsHome.

‘Starmer faces his biggest rebellion yet, but it won’t matter in the long run’
The Financial Times’ Stephen Bush argues that whether Labour can revive public services is more important.

On this day in 2021:

MPs vote through controversial national insurance rise