UKRAINE’S devastating Kursk siege could spark the end of the war against Russia with Putin being pushed towards the negotiating table.
A defence expert told The Sun how the counter invasion has opened the door to four possibilities to stop the fighting – including with a swooping “wild-card” dictator looking to cut a deal.
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Director-General Dr Karin von Hippel at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) believes Chinese tyrant Xi Jinping may be the man to deter a seething Vladimir Putin from continuing his war.
Xi – who Dr Karin says has become like an older brother to Putin – is regarded as one of the only people the Russian dictator is fearful of.
The pair have struck up a growing bond in recent months with Putin looking to stay close to the powerful Chinese leader.
Donald Trump could also play a part in ending the war if he gets into the White House in November.
The divisive former president has already vowed to stop sending money across to Ukraine if he regains control of the US – a worrying sign for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris is likely to continue to support Ukraine just like current President Joe Biden.
Dr Karin von Hippel told The Sun: “Some external power can put pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to come to the negotiating table.
“Whether it’s President Xi of China or a US president, or even India’s Modi.”
Dr Karin has laid out four potential options – including the wild card – which could see the war in Europe end in the next few months.
Ranging from Ukraine gaining back their rightful territory from 1991, including Crimea, to a gloating Putin coming out victorious.
Option one: Ukraine’s upper hand
The first and most serious option is for Ukraine to win back some of the land stolen from them over the years by continuing to battle, Dr Karin says.
If Zelensky was able to control more land and hold onto his own then Dr Karin thinks he could be in a place to negotiate.
This would require the West to continue to pledge their support to Ukraine by sending over weapons such as fighter jets, missiles and artillery.
The head of RUSI says the troops will need to drastically improve on the battlefield as well as train up new recruits.
Reports this week claimed that a group of Ukraine’s Armed Forces were refusing to “fire at the enemy”, say the Associated Press.
But RUSI has argued the war, which is now entering its 30th month, “is producing, pound for pound, possibly the most effective armed forces in the world” as Ukraine continue to strengthen.
Adding that Kursk has “successfully changed the narrative of the war” to show Zelensky’s men as brave, capable and fierce fighters.
Ukraine is said to currently occupy around 440 square miles of Kursk following its mini counter invasion on August 6.
Kyiv’s brave forces have been pushing into villages across the Russian border ever since marking the first-ever invasion on Russian soil since World War Two.
Dr Karin says the invasion has boosted morale and led to Ukraine being in a much better position to negotiate a deal.
Option two: Ukraine’s last chance offer
The second viable option will be for Zelensky to try to negotiate from a weaker position but use the threat of a similar Kursk attack to force Putin’s hand later down the line.
Russia is said to have lost over 604,000 troops since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
This figure has reportedly skyrocketed since the Kursk incursion with thousands of deaths being recorded each day.
Nobody trusts Putin for understandable reasons. I don’t think he’s likely to accept anything unless somebody strong arms him
Dr Karin von Hippel
It comes as Russia has also been forced to retreat its civilians in the Kursk regions with over 130,000 people evacuating their homes since August 6.
The situation has been labelled as “dangerous” by Kursk’s acting governor who made the call to protect his people.
The move reportedly frustrated Putin who has deployed as many troops as he can over to the border region to try and regain the land.
Despite being unlikely at the moment, an already humiliated Putin could look to cut his losses and strike a deal which still favours the Kremlin.
Why has the Ukrainian invasion of Russia been so successful?
A DARING Ukrainian military push into Russia’s Kursk region has become the largest attack on the country since World War Two.
Kyiv’s forces have seized scores of villages, taken hundreds of prisoners and forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians.
After more than a week of fighting, Russian troops are still struggling to drive out the invaders.
Why has Russian military been caught so unprepared?
A long undefended border
Russia’s regions of Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod share a 720-mile border with Ukraine – including a 152-mile section in the Kursk region.
And it only had symbolic protection before Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.
It’s been reinforced since then with checkpoints on key roads and field fortifications in places – but not enough to repel a Ukrainian assault.
The most capable Russian units are fighting in eastern Ukraine, leaving the border vulnerable to attack.
Element of surprise
Ukrainian troops participating in the incursion were reportedly only told about their mission a day before it began.
The secrecy contrasted with last year’s counteroffensive – when Ukraine openly declared its goal of cutting the land corridor to annexed Crimea.
Ukraine ended up failing as troops trudged through Russian minefields and were pummelled by artillery and drones.
But in Kursk, Ukrainian troops didn’t face any of these obstacles.
Battle-hardened units easily overwhelmed Russian border guards and small infantry units made up of inexperienced conscripts.
The Ukrainians drove deep into the region in several directions – facing little resistance and sowing chaos and panic.
Russia’s slow response
The Russian military command initially relied on warplanes and choppers to try to stop the onslaught.
At least one Russian helicopter gunship was shot down and another was damaged.
Moscow began pulling in reinforcements, managing to slow Ukraine’s advances – but failed to completely block troops
However the major issue with this would be negotiating a fair and agreed deal due to Putin’s character.
Dr Karin said: “The challenge is not getting people to the negotiating table. The challenge is getting the Russians to commit and to implement what they promised.
“And nobody trusts Putin for understandable reasons. I don’t think he’s likely to accept anything unless somebody strong arms him.
“He’s a completely unreliable negotiator, and the Ukrainians know that.
“With Putin in power, it’s very hard to see a situation where the two could come to some sort of working relationship going forward.”
Option three: A victorious Putin
Option three would be seen as a disaster for Ukraine and a potential catastrophe for Europe.
It would see Zelensky realise his last chance incursion of Kursk has resulted in too many losses leaving Russia to storm on with their advance on the Ukrainian border.
Ukraine has recently proved they still have fight left in them but with the size and strength of Putin’s troops if the continued strikes don’t break Russian spirits then Ukraine may be backed into a corner.
Dr Karin warned: “If it doesn’t end soon it’s going to be at the detriment of the Ukrainians, because, of course, the Russians have mass and material.
“They have way more people, they have way more weapons and more artillery bullets, guns, and all of that.
“The longer this goes on the more it will be in Russia’s advantage, and they don’t care about losing soldiers, as we all know, whereas the Ukrainians do.”
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Any negotiations at this point would heavily play into Putin’s plans with him realising Ukraine are in a weak position.
The likely scenario would force Ukraine into accepting Russia’s demands.
It will also take away their opportunity to have a security guarantee through NATO or EU membership leaving them vulnerable.
A move which could ultimately give Putin the power to look to take more countries in his quest for European dominance.
Option four: The wild-card
The fourth and final option Dr Karin and her team laid out revolves around how a world leader could look to step in and end the bitter feud for good.
Putin has already raised tensions within Europe and the US after the invasion and his refusal to cooperate with Nato since.
But a bold and powerful outsider may be able to diffuse Vlad’s obsession with taking back Ukraine and make Kyiv accept a deal.
Both nations could even be threatened with a global escalation against them or a promise to cut off supplies.
The longer this goes on the more it will be in Russia’s advantage, and they don’t care about losing soldiers, whereas the Ukrainians do
Dr Karin von Hippel
The front runner is China’s tyrant Xi Jinping, says Dr Karin.
She said: “I think the only external party that President Putin would listen to is President Xi. I think he’s the only one he kind of respects, he looks up to. He may be even a bit fearful of.
“And so this is why it’s been very disappointing that China hasn’t done more to push Putin.”
Xi has tried to help bring an end to the war over the past 12 months but through favourable policies that benefits Russia.
Many of his 10 point plans involved Ukraine giving up their land and letting Putin come out on top.
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China is seen as a global superpower with their rapidly improving army, weapons and economy.
But rising pressure from Western powers in the coming months against Xi’s involvement could push the leader to “big brother” Putin and tell him to go to the negotiating table.
Dr Karin also said that the Kursk invasion may have been a clever ploy ahead of the US election later this year.
She claimed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine may have used it as a opportunity to show the next US leader they are still ready to fight.
Opening the door to an agreement which could involve the next White House tenant helping to strike a deal.
Global support
Putin and Zelensky are both looking to drum up as much support as possible for the war.
Zelensky is set to meet with Indian PM Narendra Modi in a historic visit tomorrow – just weeks after he landed in Moscow for a chat with Putin.
Ukraine continues to be helped by its Western allies with British tanks said to have stormed into Russia as part of the lightning cross-border blitz.
Challenger 2 tanks appeared to rumbled over the northeastern border last week.
Their use comes after the British Government said the Ukrainians can use UK-supplied weaponry inside Russia.
It is thought to mark the first time ever that British tanks have been used on Russian soil.
Ukraine also say they now have 10 of the NATO-supplied F-16 jets in their war arsenal.
A pair of the daring aircraft could be seen soaring across the city of Odesa days before the Kursk invasion in a move regarded as a historic turning point in the war.
In recent days, Vlad has restrengthened his ties with China after welcoming Chinese premier Li Qiang to the Kremlin.
Belarus leader Aleksandr Lukashenko has also backed his close pal Putin by stationing a third of his forces along Ukraine’s southern border.
The rambling conspiratorial leader also bizarrely claimed NATO wanted to push Russia into using a nuke as it would totally isolate Putin.
Vladimir Putin is ‘rattled’ by invasion
By Foreign News Reporter Owen Leonard
VLADIMIR Putin has been labelled “hesitant” and “rattled” as the Russian tyrant grapples with Ukraine’s surprise invasion.
Kyiv’s troops launched a shock offensive into the Kursk region last week ruffling the president‘s feathers.
Footage has since emerged of a nervous Vlad addressing Russia’s security and defence chiefs.
He appears unsteady as he twitches and rubs his hands together.
International Institute for Strategic Studies senior researcher Nigel Gould-Davies said the 71-year-old looked “rattled”.
Gould-Davies wrote on X: “Putin discussing Ukraine’s incursion into Russia, which he says the West is behind.
“He looks and sounds not angry, outraged, determined — but hesitant and rattled.”
Body language pro Professor Erik Bucy told The Sun that Putin was uncharacteristically speaking with “a halting and unconvincing delivery”.
He said: “These clips of Putin depict a leader who has been knocked off balance.
“He comes across as both nonchalant and unconvinced by what he is saying, like a salesman reading a prepared script for the first time.
“For a warlord intent on dominating Ukraine and other neighbouring countries, Putin seems uncharacteristically subdued and preoccupied.
“Lacking conviction, he is clearly just reading whatever someone had just put in front of him.”
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