Hitler with Nukes?

I had the pleasure of attending the first two days of the MacGill Summer school for the first time this year and listened to some excellent discussions and talks. Friday was headlined by An Taoiseach, Simon Harris who gave a speech and interview proposing to set up a new department of Infrastructural Development to improve the delivery of major infrastructural projects. See report by Mark Hennesy here.

He also announced that the Irish Government would not be acceding to the request by the newly re-elected President of the Commission, Ursula Van Der Leyen, that Ireland send two nominations, a man and a women, for the next Commission and decried the violence that was accompanying protests against immigration and asylum seekers.

Thursday was headlined by Eamon Ryan,  Minister for the Environment, Climate, Communications and Transport and just retired as Green Party leader who argued that humanity has just five years to prevent large scale irreversible climate damage and described the negotiations which led up to COP28.

Former Irish Chief Medical Officer Tony Holohan, also gave his thoughts on “Disease X” and how we should prepare for the next pandemic or public health crisis.  Although all speakers received a round of applause for their contributions, the three aforementioned received prolonged standing ovations from the c. 200 attendees of mostly middle aged people from all over the island. Clearly their contributions to Irish public life and welfare were appreciated.

There were also informative sessions on how Ireland should spend its budget surpluses; an interview with Noel Doran (retired editor of the Irish News) on the changes in Northern Ireland in his time as a journalist; the impact of Artificial Intelligence on social media and the integrity of the electoral process; the impact of immigration on Irish society; a comparison of Ireland and New Zealand’s intelligence capabilities in a rapidly changing world; and on whether we in Ireland have “lost the run of ourselves”.

I will discuss some of these topics briefly below:

How should Ireland Spend its Budget Surpluses?

The economists chosen to speak to the topic of “How should Ireland Spend its Budget Surpluses?” seemed more concerned to force low earners to pay more tax under the rubric of “broadening the tax base” which always seems to mean other people not like senior academics paying more tax. Neither were they entirely sweet on the possibility of a “sugar tax” on sweets and drinks, despite the obvious health benefits.

While claiming to be promoting creative ideas, the economists only reinforced the popular prejudice of economists as a dismal lot. Since 2008 Irish household debt (mostly in mortgages) has reduced from €200 billion to €120 billion while household deposits have increased from €100 billion to €180 billion – a combined increase in net private wealth of €160 billion, so clearly, we need to tax the poor a lot more!

Much of this increased wealth is sitting in bank deposits earning almost zero interest while the banks are earning 4% by depositing it with the ECB. In the meantime, entrepreneurs are crying out for affordable capital. We need to create more financial instruments to encourage households to invest more in productive enterprises at an acceptable level of risk. The very slow development of an EU capital markets union is also holding back European entrepreneurship and growth relative to China and the USA.

Artificial Intelligence and Electoral Integrity

Over 50% of the world’s population is due to go to the polls in 40 national elections this year but democracies almost everywhere are under threat from declining levels of trust in the integrity of the electoral process. Ireland is in the top 10 countries in the world for the robustness of our electoral processes, with our registration process being the weak spot. However, we are not as bad as the UK, where it is apparently not required for an electoral candidate to prove that they actually exist!

The European Digital Services Act will help to make social media algorithms more transparent and AI generated content identifiable. But Artificial Intelligence generated content remains a huge challenge with deep fakes becoming increasingly sophisticated and malignant actors achieving a “liars’ dividend” whereby even content which is true becomes distrusted because there is so much dis- and mis-information about. The objective of such dis-information is to create an immediate negative emotional reaction to (e.g., immigrants committing crimes) before it is possible to rebut the claims (e.g., by proving that the images used relate to an entirely different incident).

Social cohesion is damaged when we no longer have a shared perception of reality. Polarisation and conflict generation is often the objective of foreign malignant actors. (Most of the social media chatter and incitement related to recent riots in Ireland came from outside the country, and many of the direct protagonists came from outside the areas in which the rioting actually occurred).

One recent electoral fraud (in another country) involved a social media campaign targeted at certain demographics which told those voters their names would be entered in a lottery draw if they wrote their names on the ballot paper (thereby spoiling their vote). False identities can be created using https://thispersonnotexist.org.

Border Poll

I wasn’t able to stay for Saturday’s sessions which included an interview with Pearse Doherty TD, Sinn Féin spokesperson on Finance and Public Expenditure and reform, which is reported on here. Needless to say, that, had I been present, I would have challenged him on his assertion that the courts might intervene to force the Secretary of State’s hand on whether a border poll should be called. As I have argued on Slugger, the courts would be very reluctant to interfere in the Secretary of State’s sole right to exercise his political judgement on the matter, as specifically given to him in the Good Friday Agreement.

On The Brink

The main theme of the Summer School was “On the Brink” which looked at the multiple crises facing the world in the wake of the Financial Crisis, the Pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the genocide in Gaza, and the forthcoming elections in the USA. I will focus this blog post on that discussion as I have not seen it reported elsewhere, and as it seemed to me the most consequential discussion at the summer school.

There were two main sessions on this topic, chaired by Prof. Brigid Laffan, Chancellor of the University of Limerick, and John O’Brennan, of Maynooth University, with Prof. Robert Schmul of the University of Notre Dame providing an American perspective. My take on the discussion was as follows:

Trump’s victory in 2016 caught supporters and opponents alike largely by surprise, and beyond tax cuts for the rich and stacking the Supreme Court, Trump achieved little of substance in 2017-21, thanks largely to his own lack of a detailed policy agenda and the incompetence of his appointees. His self-declared ambition then was to be “the most famous person in the world”. This time it is to be the most powerful.

2025 will be very different with Trump having a detailed and extremely radical policy agenda prepared for him by the Heritage foundation and other far right think tanks. This includes:

1. The concentration of all executive power in the Presidency
2. The destruction of the administrative “deep” state by the replacement of 50,000 civil servants with loyal acolytes, including the destruction of the independence of many agencies, such as the Department of Justice.
3. The deportation of millions of undocumented migrants
4. Revenge and retribution, include death and lengthy jail terms, for those who have opposed him in the past
5. Further enrichment of himself and his family to the tune of Billions of dollars.
6. Reluctance to use the military in support of allies abroad, but no such reluctance to use the armed forces against dissidents at home.
7. Absolute immunity for all acts by the President, whether criminal or not, as largely already granted to him by Trump appointed judges up to and including the Supreme Court.
8. A transactional approach to diplomacy and political issues – “what’s in it for me?” Personal aggrandisement will be the name of the game, including mysterious payments of billions for his son-in-law’s consultancy “business”.

Trump and his Vice Presidential nominee, JD Vance, have already said they will immediately sue for peace with Putin, conceding Ukrainian territory and sovereignty as required. JD Vance has stated: “Ukraine will never be there for us.” Therefore, why help Ukraine? Any further resistance by Ukraine will be purely the responsibility of Ukraine and its European allies. (Israel can also expect a carte blanche, and already seems to be acting on the assumption).

It is important to note that Trump is now in absolute control of the Republican Party with all former opponents (including his VP nominee, JD Vance) either assimilated or side-lined. 40 out of the 44 cabinet members who served under Trump in his first term (include former VP, Mike Pence) have refused to endorse him, but it hardly seems to matter. Corporations and billionaires who formerly opposed him are rapidly falling into line as his victory appears increasingly likely following Biden’s stumbling debate performance and the assassination attempt on Trump.

Biden’s poor performance will also impact on all down ballot races with Republican’s likely to win the House and Senate and many state gubernatorial office in addition to their current control of the Supreme Court and many lower courts. The ability and willingness of many states to resist Trump’s Federal decrees will therefore be much reduced. This will also enable Republicans to  consolidate their power by gerrymandering many constituencies and employing voter suppression tactics (such as fewer polling points leading to long queues in Democrat supporting areas).  A Republican win, even while Democrats win a plurality of votes is already baked in the cake.

It looks increasingly likely that Biden will be forced to step down as a candidate in favour of Kamala Harris for health reasons, but will that be enough? She has had almost no profile under Biden and is not universally popular in any case. I made the comment that incumbent Presidents have rarely failed to win re-election if the US economy is doing well – as it is now. If Biden were to step down not just as a candidate but as President as well, the US electorate would have three months to get used to the idea of a Harris Presidency and might warm to the idea if she is seen to perform well.

It is probably the only chance Democrats have of winning the Presidency and retaining the House and Senate. But Biden’s ego may be too much bound up with being President, and he is unlikely to relinquish the post early even if his defeat in November looks almost certain. That is the price Democrats are now paying for failing to have a proper succession plan in place. No one of any stature challenged Biden in the primaries, and thus only Harris remains as (a relatively unknown and unpopular) alternative.

Trump (and JD Vance) seem hell bent on a trade war with China and a rapprochement with Russia. From a European perspective they may withdraw from NATO altogether, or radically reduce their commitment to it.

The EU can expect to be treated as a hostile competitor and Ireland had better beware losing much of its corporate tax income. Europe will have to radically increase its defence spending to secure its eastern flank (and the North Atlantic). 23 out of 31 NATO members have already increased their defence expenditure to the NATO target of 2% of GDP for a combined total of €230 Billion p.a. but much of this in uncoordinated and ineffective against Russia, as it is more designed to shore up legacy defence industries in member states by way of state subsidies.

EU solidarity could disintegrate with Victor Orban and others doing side deals with Putin or with Trump. Shultz and Macron are already much weakened as leaders and up to a third of EU governments could be far right led or have a far right component within a year.

Starmer takes office at a time when the UK budgetary position is the worst it has been since the Second World War. Under Blair’s New Labour, Robin Cook’s “ethical foreign policy” didn’t survive first contact with reality, and new Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s “Progressive Realism” and chummy relationship with JD Vance may end up looking more like Chamberlain’s appeasement than Churchill’s bellicosity (my comment). Churchill too, had his “fight, fight, fight” moment.

The European Political Community met at Churchill’s birthplace, Blenheim Palace, last week, and will hopefully enable increased cooperation between the UK and EU on the security issues above. If the US withdraws from the “Western Alliance” with Europe, we will need all the help we can get in containing Russian aggression. Underwater cables off the Irish coast are particularly at risk with increasing reports of cables being cleanly sliced through after mysterious Russian and Chinese ship movements above. Ireland badly needs to develop a coherent national security strategy, even if it is reliant on some allies to implement parts of it.

Ireland has published a national strategic risk assessment. It is time it developed and implemented an adequate, coherent, and coordinated national security strategy to effectively mitigate those risks.

Conclusion

In conclusion, I would like to commend the McGill Summer school, led for so long by Dr. Joe Mullholland, for the quality of their organisation and their selection of topics, speakers, chairs, moderators, and interviewers. Prof. Brigid Laffan, Mark Little, Prof. Ciaran Martin, Lynette Fay, Noel Doran, Prof. Hannah Daly, Sarah Carey, John O’Brennan and Prof. Robert Schmuhl as well as the aforementioned speakers were all outstanding in this regard. It was perhaps a little too much of a talk shop, with sparing use of audio visual aids, or other media such as film, music, art and humour. Some panels were perhaps a little too academic and monochrome with a lack of active dissent and controversy to provoke engagement and discussion. But some very important issues were raised, and particularly the question of whether we are on the brink of the abyss or of great new opportunities.

Where Trump excels is in his ability to appeal to the visceral fears and concerns of his base and appear the strong man who can relieve them of their problems. The image of him raising his fist and shouting “fight, fight, fight” having just been shot at may come to be the defining icon of this election – now available on Trump endorsed expensive posters, T-shirts, sneakers, and other merchandise. Not since Goebbels have we seen such a master of propaganda and not since Hitler someone with such an ability to appeal to the emotions of those who feel life is giving them a raw deal. The problem is that unlike Hitler he will have access to the nuclear button even if he is not be prepared to lift a finger to help Europe.

Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.