Kamala Harris Surge?

Just a few weeks ago Trump was leading Biden in almost all the key battleground states. He had beaten Biden in the Presidential debate, had had a triumphant coronation at the Republican National Convention, and was approaching sainthood as the bullet missed his head by mere inches. His devoted followers interpreted that as a sign from God that he was truly the blessed one. Even his anointment of JP Vance as his Vice Presidential nominee could be dismissed as “not very important” when it turned out to be unpopular with the voters.

Then Biden stepped down in an act of self-sacrifice for the common good. He finally recognised that the American people did not regard him as capable of another four years in one of the toughest jobs on earth. Like a good scape-goat he took much of the mixed baggage of his administration with him. Kamala Harris (59) had been a low key Vice President and could be presented as a relatively new broom.

No longer forced to choose between an 81 year old and a 78 year old the American people, collectively breathed a sigh of relief. Bill Clinton, now also 78, was able to boast at the Democratic National Convention that he was still younger than Trump. Trump’s targeting of Biden’s age has come back to bite him in the rear.

Clinton also urged the audience to listen to Trump’s words when he speaks, saying, “The next time you hear him, don’t count the lies. Count the I’s — his vendettas, his vengeance, his complaints, his conspiracies … he’s like a tenor trying to get his lungs open by singing, ‘me, me, me, me, me.’ ” There are levels of narcissism most American voters find hard to take.

Trump has struggled to find an effective attack line against Harris, and so the JP Vance line about miserable childless cat women running the country has continued to hang in the air, not helped by Republican supporters holding up Jizz cups of fake semen at their rallies. That must go down really well with women voters, those having difficulty having the family they so badly want, and with conservative religious types. “Hey, look at me, I don’t need no IVF”

It also highlights the consequences of Trump’s conservative Supreme Court appointees overturning Roe vs. Wade and the consequent wave of anti-abortion (and even anti-IVF) judgements and legislation in many states. It is the one issue which most unites Democrats and divides Republicans.

Trump was 3.2% ahead when Biden dropped out of the race:

There has been a 6.5% turnaround and now Harris is 3.3% ahead: Support for the leading third party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has also slumped by 4%.

Looking at the battleground states, the following picture emerges:

All data is taken from 538.com, one of the leading poll aggregators in the US. I never quote data from just one or a few polls, as the margins of error and variations are too large to be statistically significant when you are considering fine margins. Even the data above, based on numerous polls, should be treated with some caution. A lot depends on who turns out on the day.

Of the 6 most marginal battleground states which Biden won, Harris is currently ahead in five and has consolidated her position in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Only in Georgia is she still behind Trump, where she has lost some ground. However, she has gained the lead in North Carolina for the first time and made up some ground in Florida.

If these poll averages turn out to be accurate, Harris will win by 303 electoral college votes to 235. If she loses North Carolina, and Arizona, the margin in the electoral college narrows to 276 to 262. If she loses Nevada as well the margin becomes wafer thin at 270 to 268. She basically cannot afford to lose any of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan unless she has upset wins elsewhere.

So basically, the election is still too close to call, although it now has a slight lean towards a Harris win. However, it is worth remembering that Biden won the popular vote by over 7 million votes (4.4%), but still only won the electoral college by a little over 20,000 votes in Georgia and Arizona.

So far, the Democratic National Convention in Chicago has been a triumphant success, in stark contrast to the Mayor Daley led “police riots” which attacked peaceful anti-war demonstrators in 1968 and caused mayhem in Democratic party politics, leading to the defeat of Democratic candidate Hubert Humphrey by Richard Nixon.

Keynote speakers Joe Biden, Barack and Michelle Obama, Bill and Hillary Clinton, and Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz have set the tone for a “joyful” national renewal in contrast to the dark and divisive days of the Trump era. Kamala Harris is due to accept the nomination this evening and her speech will be keenly awaited as she attempts to define herself in contra-distinction to Trump.

Nomination speeches are not for policy detail, and she faces criticism for avoiding in depth interviews and policy debates so far. But this convention has been about Democrats off all stripes coming together and trying to put forward a much more positive and harmonious vision for America. Democrats have started to edge further ahead of Republicans in voter’s preference to lead Congress in a further sign that things are heading in their direction.

We’ll have to wait a week or so to see if the Convention leads to a further bump in their polls, but so far so good for Kamala Harris and her team. The next few weeks, and particular the debates with Trump will be critical in determining the final outcome. Most Americans don’t really focus on the Presidential election unto September and a lot of undecided still have to make up their minds..

Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.