Keir Starmer has rightly named the active threat Putin poses to the UK, our allies and peace in the world. Putin has attacked us before, he has been attacking Ukraine since 2014, and Putin makes no secret of his imperial ambitions for our Eastern European allies.
With the additional pressure from a US pivot away from Europe, It is right that the government now prioritises defence spending.
The government’s commitment to raise defence spending to 2.5% GDP by 2027, rising to 3% by the next parliament is not going fast enough.
Russia is now spending more than 6% GDP on their armed forces. For context, during the Falklands War, UK spending was at 5.2%, topping off at 5.4% in 1984. At the end of the Cold War this had reduced to 4% of GDP on defence.
All of this was at a time where the US remained absolutely committed to European security.
The only way to stop expansionists like Putin, is to show a united front strong enough to beat any would be aggressor. A £6bn increase in defence spending will not be enough to do this.
It cannot be stressed enough; that announcement of hypothetical funds is not a deterrent. The only effective deterrent is combat ready forces, with the industrial base to supply them.
Keir Starmer is right to say that we can only achieve peace, through strength. So why would we not try to be stronger, faster?
Spending cuts ‘will likely create new problems’
Faster re-armament will need more money than the £6bn already announced. The resignation letter by Anneliese Dodds summarised very effectively why cuts to the foreign aid budget as a first measure for raising new funds for defence, is the wrong way to go; especially as the need for UK soft power is only growing in the emerging world of expansionist authoritarianism.
Departmental cuts, after 14 years of austerity, will likely create new problems and weaken the UK, rather than strengthen it.
But more importantly, it just won’t raise enough money, departments have been bled dry, and without impacting service delivery, there simply isn’t more to cut.
Against this backdrop, the arguments in favour of raising taxes to meet the new defence need are overwhelming, especially when the Chancellor left measures un-touched in her Autumn budget.
For example, the much talked about hypothetical wealth tax(es) could bring in a substantial amount of revenue. Estimates range from £10bn to £50bn a year depending on the levy. IPPR has previously estimated equalising capital gains with income tax would raise £14bn a year. These two measures alone could put the UK on a clear path to 5% GDP.
READ MORE: ‘The PM channels Attlee on defence. But a wealth tax, not aid cuts, should fund it’
I would also argue though, there is a principle at stake here. It’s right that everyone contributes more to the nation’s defence.
Serious examination of income tax rates, reforming them to be more progressive and comprehensive, is needed.
The Treasury could announce it will commission an impact assessment into the viability of a scaled income tax rise: One with a small symbolic increase in contribution from the basic rate payers, rising to new tax bands with the progressively higher rates applied to higher earners. This national defence levy could further improve financing for increased defence spending.
The Prime Minister is correct, tough decisions need to be taken. We should be under no illusions that tax rises may be unpopular and yes, increases will hurt people’s finances. Additionally, we should not infantilise the British public and pretend that people cannot understand that the security situation is rapidly changing.
‘The evolving security situation demands action today’
An honest approach, which clarifies why it is so important that everyone contributes to the defence of the nation may hurt in the short term, but it is only through working together in a national effort can we achieve a rapid re-armament program. Especially as our ally Ukraine’s future, and with them the future of Europe, is not yet secured.
The increased spending should be distributed into two key areas:
- Direct Armed Forces Enlargement
- Increasing Domestic Industrial Capacity
The government should not shy away from extolling the benefits of a rapid re-armament program. We can deliver a comprehensive industrial strategy, through the lens of national defence.
UK defence companies are already world leading. Future investments should be made with a clear view to supporting Ukraine into a just peace, and our ally’s re-armament programs.
READ MORE: Ukraine: Starmer approval ratings leap among Labour voters amid peace talks
Prioritising UK industries so we can enrich the UK economy, onshoring contracts and boosting supporting industries such as steel and energy in the process.
Investment should establish a deeper co-operative relationship between the state and industry. Procurement reform must be a central feature of such a plan. Specifically, a procurement policy that encourages speedy delivery with financial incentives, while introducing fines for late or failed delivery.
Supported by planning reform to get sites built on fast timeframes. Resourcing of the civil service to oversee procurement should absolutely be considered part of this defence spending; balancing value for money with the need for high output.
A comprehensive plan to ramp up defence to cold-war levels also shows the resolve of the British state and the commitment of the British people to peace and liberty in Europe. The evolving security situation demands action today, and through that action we can pursue the just society Labour was founded to fight for.
Through progressive taxation, a new form of patriotic socialism can take shape.
One that puts Britain as a champion of the rules based international order, sees the wealth of the nation shared fairly, and provides a direction for the country to end the malaise that has gripped the UK since 2010.
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