US presidential elections are famously long and exhausting, but one could easily be forgiven for thinking this election has dragged on longer than most.
Months have now passed since Joe Biden took to the debate stage with Donald Trump – only to deliver a car crash performance that would ultimately see his presidential campaign brought to an unceremonious end.
Vice President Kamala Harris remains locked in a nail-bitingly close contest with Trump. It is a contest that has major ramifications for Britain and the globe depending on its result.
But on top of the current storm over Labour staffers volunteering for the Democrats, what concerns might the Starmer team have were the bombastic Trump to return to the Oval Office?
Tariff hikes
“To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariffs.”
Donald Trump is well known for his protectionist stances on trade, and his comments during this campaign period suggest the former president could further double down on his economically isolationist stances were he returned to power.
In a post-Brexit world where the UK will need to strike new trade deals across the globe, a further tightening of US trade policy would more or less rule out a major trade deal between Britain and America.
If Trump follows through on his plans for a major hike in import taxes during his second term, Starmer would be forced to rethink any prospective warming of UK-US economic relations.
Israel-Gaza war
The war between Israel and Hamas has become one of the most politically sensitive issues for Labour over the past year since the murderous attacks of October 7.
Keir Starmer took flak last year for an interview in which he appeared to say Israel “has the right” to withdraw food, water and power from Gaza. Despite clarifications, the damage was done.
Labour in government has since revoked a number of arms licences to Israel over IHL concerns. But were Trump back in the White House, things could become more complicated.
In his last stint as president, Trump controversially recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the Golan Heights as Israeli territory – despite widespread condemnation that such a unilateral move could threaten the broader peace process with both the Palestinian Authority and neighbouring states.
If Trump doubled down on this path upon a return to office, the foreign policy tightrope in the Middle East would become a lot more unstable.
An emboldened global populist right
The story of the decade is that of the rise of right wing populism across liberal democracies. From Washington to Rome and from Buenos Aries to Budapest, the hard right has enjoyed much electoral success in recent years.
Nigel Farage has made his closeness to Trump a large part of his appeal since the 45th President’s election – and was one of the first international politicians to meet him following his victory in 2016.
Were Trump to become the 47th President, Reform UK would be looking to capitalise. A British government with strong ties to Trump and the MAGA project would undoubtedly be a key campaigning line from the right, arguing that Britain would benefit from leaning into the populist abyss.
If Starmer wants to use his government to stem the tide of right wing populism, a new Trump presidency would present an obstacle. A fresh, inspiring vision for a different world would need to be on his agenda.
Weakened aid for Ukraine
Ukraine aid has become a deeply partisan issue in the United States, with House Republicans famously blocking a major aid package in Congress for months.
Donald Trump himself has made little secret of his reluctance to back Ukraine through to victory against Russia. In an attack on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, he said in a recent campaign rally that “we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refuses to make a deal.”
What a Trump negotiated peace deal in Ukraine might look like is still a matter of speculation, but it seems likely he would demand Kyiv surrender some of its occupied territory to Moscow. And the US has substantial leverage in forcing Ukraine into a premature peace deal, being the largest contributor of military aid to the war-stricken nation.
Were the US to turn off the tap, it would fall to European powers – including the UK – to either pick up the slack or find an alternate strategy. As one of Europe’s largest defence spenders, Britain would want and need to take the lead in finding this new path.
A clash of characters
From Thatcher and Reagan to Bush and Clinton, UK-US relations have thrown up many a close partnership of opposite numbers in Downing Street and the White House.
But the reserved, clinical style of Keir Starmer couldn’t be more different from the brash populism of Donald Trump.
How well the two would get on is only a matter than time can tell. They could be an unlikely diplomatic couple, or they could be posing for the international press through gritted teeth.
Whatever the case may be, the strength of partnership between the two leaders – and their alignment on the key issues – would be deeply uncertain.
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