Because of greater financial security particularly home-ownership, more affluent voters were less wary of the potential risks of changing the status quo.
Since the 52-48 percent vote in favour of leaving the European Union in June 2016, the correlation between wealth and how people voted in the 2016 EU referendum has been widely researched and discussed. It is broadly acknowledged that voters in economically deprived and left-behind areas were more likely to have voted to leave the European Union. But a new study has found that while poorer areas were more supportive of exiting the EU, wealthier people within these areas were more inclined to have voted for Brexit.
The ‘Mind the Gap: Why Wealthy Voters Support Brexit’ report by the King’s College London was published in early May in the British Journal of Political Science. It found that because of greater financial security particularly home-ownership, more affluent voters were less wary of the potential risks of changing the status quo.
Conversely, younger voters, who were less likely to have security against economic shocks and did not own property, were more likely to have voted to remain, as they were more risk averse.
“People living in left-behind areas were more likely to support Brexit than those living in prosperous areas. The gains of Brexit were perceived to be greater in areas of the country that had experienced economic decline. But within those areas, given people’s preferences, we show that wealthier individuals were more likely to vote for Brexit, and poorer individuals were more likely to vote for Remain,” said the authors.
The study involved analysing data from a British Election Study internet panel and several Bank of England panel surveys surrounding income and expenditure in 2016 – 2018. Both panels included information on a participant’s political preferences and wealth. Across the two panels, the researchers found the likelihood of a Leave vote increased as property wealth increased. The Bank of England data showed that the standard deviation increase in property wealth increased Leave support by as much as 7.1 percentage points.
Noting how wealth provides self-assurance against financial risk, thereby reducing risk aversion, the authors said: “We apply this insurance mechanism to electoral behaviour, arguing that a voter who desires a change to the status quo and who is wealthy is more likely to voted for change than a voter who lacks the same self-assurance.”
“Studying the effect of wealth in the Brexit case, we found that variation in personal wealth – especially property wealth – enabled wealthier individuals to support Brexit and less wealthy individuals to support Remain,” said the researchers.
The King’s College London research follows a study in April which found the majority of British voters now regret Brexit. Research by UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE), found that because as many as 16-20 percent of those who voted to leave have switched sides, compared with only 6 percent of those who voted to remain, the balance has swung against Brexit.
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